Here’s a quick handicap of the two major general-election races to emerge from the primary Saturday:
U.S. SENATE
Mazie Hirono had an impressive 17-percentage-point victory over Ed Case in the Democratic primary with a cautious campaign that tightly controlled the message.
She had faith in her internal polls showing a comfortable enough lead to mostly ignore Case and focus on her likely Republican general election opponent, Linda Lingle.
Hirono stuck doggedly to her Mama Strategy of emphasizing above all else her upbringing as the daughter of a poor immigrant mother from Japan who came to Hawaii to escape an abusive marriage.
Invoking "our values" against a Caucasian opponent is out of the same playbook as Mufi Hannemann’s infamous "I look like you, you look like me" line from the 2010 governor’s race, but Hirono’s campaign delivered the message with far more subtlety to avoid the backlash Hannemann got.
Expect more of the same against Lingle in the general election, which appears to be Hirono’s to lose.
Lingle is counting on many moderate Democrats who voted for Case to either vote for her or stay home, as they did in 2002 when Lingle beat Hirono for governor.
But it’ll be a tough sell this time to Democrats who will be reminded repeatedly that a vote for Lingle is potentially a vote to turn over the Senate to Republicans and the tea party and to oust Hawaii Sen. Daniel Inouye as appropriations chairman and Senate president pro tempore.
HONOLULU MAYOR
Anti-rail candidate Ben Cayetano gained a solid advantage going into the general with 44 percent of the primary vote against 29 percent and 25 percent, respectively, for pro-railers Kirk Caldwell and Peter Carlisle, who was eliminated.
Much post-election analysis has been about where Carlisle’s 51,000 votes will go in the general, and it’s difficult to imagine Cayetano wouldn’t get the 20 percent of these he needs to pass 50 percent.
But more important in deciding the race are the new voters who come into the general after skipping the primary — 90,000-plus in 2010 and about 200,000 in 2008, the last presidential election year.
If these voters were rabid on rail one way or the other, they likely would have voted in the primary. The candidates would be well advised to assume they have interests beyond rail and find ways to identify and appeal to those concerns.
The general election will also tell us much about the influence of special-interest money, with pro-rail groups and labor unions expected to spend millions on Caldwell’s behalf.
It’ll be interesting to see if the cash influx helps Caldwell close the gap or causes a backlash by playing into Cayetano’s argument that special interests have too much power in Hawaii politics.
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Reach David Shapiro at volcanicash@gmail.com or blog.volcanicash.net.
