Ten years ago, Linda Lingle made history when she defeated Mazie Hirono to become the first woman — and the first Republican in 40 years — elected as Hawaii’s governor.
In November, Lingle and Hirono will meet again, vying for the first open U.S. Senate seat in the islands in a generation. While they both say they are different candidates than they were a decade ago, there are some obvious parallels, and some important differences, that could influence the rematch.
Many of the ingredients that contributed to Lingle’s 52 percent to 47 percent victory over Hirono in the 2002 governor’s race are missing this year, while Hirono’s highest obstacle that year — lower Democratic turnout — may be solved with Hawaii-born President Barack Obama on the ballot for re-election and the political control of the Senate at stake.
"Lingle is just going to vote party line," said Bob Toyofuku, Hirono’s campaign manager 10 years ago and one of the state’s top lobbyists. "I don’t care what she says — she can be bipartisan? — she’s going to vote party line. And if the Republicans have their way, I think it’s a disaster for the country."
Kitty Lagareta, a Lingle strategist and communications executive, said Democrats issued similar warnings about life under a Republican governor. She said voters have been able to judge Lingle’s track record over time.
"A lot of the barriers have come down," she said. "We all know she wouldn’t have gotten elected if there weren’t union members who voted for her, Democrats who voted for her, independents who voted for her. You don’t just do it because Republicans voted for you."
Lingle, the state GOP chairwoman and former Maui County mayor, had the momentum in the governor’s race from the start. The Republican had lost a close campaign to Gov. Ben Cayetano in 1998 and positioned herself as the candidate of change after four decades of Democratic rule.
Lingle opened with a 15-point lead in the Hawaii Poll and raised a record $5.5 million to Hirono’s $2.6 million.
Hirono, the lieutenant governor, had passed on Washington Place to run for Honolulu mayor, but she jumped back in when Honolulu Mayor Jeremy Harris dropped out of the governor’s race amid an investigation into his campaign donors. The Democrat limped out of the primary against state lawmaker Ed Case and businessman D.G. "Andy" Anderson.
Hirono closed Lingle’s edge in the Hawaii Poll to single digits before the election, but soft debate performances and a perception that she was the candidate of the status quo undercut her chances.
A district-by-district analysis by the Honolulu Advertiser showed that Lingle did well in traditionally more conservative districts in East Honolulu and the Windward side, as well as swing districts in Mililani and Kapolei and in growing communities on Maui and Hawaii island. Lingle claimed 14 of the 16 House districts the moderate Case had won in the primary, an indication that Case voters broke for Lingle.
While Hirono held most of the traditionally Democratic territory across the state, voter turnout in many of those districts had fallen.
OVERALL VOTER turnout was 57 percent, down from 68.6 percent in 1998. But the story was in the raw numbers: In an election decided by about 17,000 votes, Hirono had nearly 25,000 votes less than Cayetano did four years before, while Lingle had nearly 2,000 votes less than she had earned in the previous campaign.
Democrats are confident that in the Senate campaign this year — a presidential election year with Obama on the ballot — the party faithful will not stay home.
Higher Democratic turnout in November could be the most pronounced difference from the governor’s race a decade ago, but there are other indicators that U.S. Rep. Hirono is in a better position this year.
Hirono held a 19-point gap over Lingle in the Hawaii Poll in July. She has been competitive in fundraising, with more than $3.5 million, although she still trails Lingle, who has collected more than $4.4 million.
Hirono’s dominating 57 percent to 41 percent primary win over former U.S. Rep. Case makes her the party’s clear choice to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka. Hirono took 47 of 51 House districts, losing only in Hawaii Kai, Aina Haina, Kailua and Manoa. She also answered some doubts about her debating skills in five forums with Case, including a statewide debate on commercial television that she had initially resisted.
Despite an aggressive advertising campaign by Lingle before the primary, 17 percent of primary voters chose Republican ballots, compared with 29 percent in the primary in 2002. In raw numbers, Lingle received about 44,000 votes this year in the primary to Hirono’s 134,000. In 2002, Lingle received about 70,000 votes in the primary to Hirono’s 76,000.
"This is not 2002," Hirono said in a statement. "We’re running a modern campaign in a post-Citizens United landscape where the wealthy few can drown out the voices of everyday individuals. Over $1 million has already been spent in this race, including more than $750,000 by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, in an extreme makeover of Linda Lingle’s record and her ties to national Republicans.
"It’s clear that strategy is not working as her campaign is now employing a Karl Rove-style attack plan," Hirono said. "I am humbled by the support I have received in this campaign from people of all walks of life across this great state who want our next U.S. senator to be on the side of our kupuna, our keiki and our working families."
Lingle has also said that this year is different.
"I think the difference between this race and 10 years ago is that I now have a proven track record of achievement for the people of Hawaii, from providing quality homes for Native Hawaiians to the energy independence that we’re now on track to achieve — that national model, the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative," she told reporters after the primary.
"I think every achievement that I’ve had over these past eight years as governor is well known to the people of Hawaii."
