There’s a guy who says the University of Hawaii football team will beat Nevada on Saturday because that’s when a Warriors spy comes in from the cold. He has inside info that Nevada/Hawaii offensive coordinator/secret agent Nick Rolovich will tear off his Wolf Pack gear minutes before kickoff and run over to the UH side of Aloha Stadium, ready for debriefing on all of the Wolf Pack secrets.

We can’t confirm this bit of deep-cover espionage, since Nevada won’t allow us to talk to Rolo or other assistants or players this week. But read this quote in the Reno Gazette-Journal from Rolovich, talking about what UH coach Norm Chow told him when he deployed him on his mission:

“(Chow) said it’s probably best for your future to get off the island and learn a new system and get in a new environment,” Rolovich told the RGJ’s Chris Murray.

Obviously that’s code for “Infiltrate the Wolf Pack, and report back to me, 1600 hours, 21 September.”

Hey, judging by the various ways UH has gotten into Nevada coach Chris Ault’s Hall-of-Fame head over the years, I wouldn’t rule out anything.

Let’s just say that at Aloha Stadium in recent years, Nevada has suffered the worst case of repeated snake bites since that number the black mamba did on Michael Madsen in “Kill Bill 2.” That’s not even counting the Wolf Pack’s two losses in the Hawaii Bowl.

How has UH rained on Nevada’s visits to paradise over the years? Let us recount the ways.

2010: Corey Paredes forces two Colin Kaepernick fumbles and Mana Silva intercepts a Kaepernick pass late in UH’s 27-21 win that ends Nevada’s unbeaten season and bid for a BCS bowl game.

2008: Greg Alexander hits Malcolm Lane for a 21-yard touchdown pass with 1:31 left, and Hawaii wins 38-31.

2006: Nevada has first and goal at the Hawaii 3 with less than 3 minutes left after recovering a Colt Brennan fumble. But the Warriors defense holds and UH wins 41-34.

This time, the Warriors are 8-point underdogs against a 2-1 Nevada team that has rolled up big yardage each week.

UH has a very good chance to win this game for several reasons:

1. History and venue. See above.

2. Nevada turnovers. Nevada averages an eye-popping 551.3 yards per game, but the run-and-shoot/pistol hybrid has a tendency to shoot itself in the foot; 11 fumbles and an interception.

3. Hawaii discipline. That 56.5 yards per game on penalties might not seem real special, but it’s a big improvement and will continue to trend in the right direction as this team gains experience. Zero personal fouls in two games.

4. Nevada defense. It’s porous, Morris.

Despite all that, I can’t predict a Hawaii win. I’ve been softer than Jell-O going back and forth on this one for weeks. I counted it as a “W” for UH three weeks ago when forecasting a 6-6 season. But in Football Fever — where I almost never pick underdogs — I went with favored Nevada. If nose tackle Moses Samia were healthy I might have stuck with UH; this is a crucial position where Hawaii lacks depth and it could prove pivotal Saturday.

But if history repeats itself, UH fans go home happy Saturday with the Warriors atop the Mountain West standings.

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Reach Dave Reardon at dreardon@staradvertiser.com or 529-4783.