The first checkpoint for the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative is just three years off, and the plan appears on track to reach its short-term goals for the use of alternative energy sources to replace oil in electricity generation.
Renewables already account for nearly 13 percent of the Hawaii’s power generation, and officials say a number of wind, solar and waste-to-energy projects in the pipeline should boost that share to 15 percent by 2015 as mandated under the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative.
However, a less heralded piece of the plan, which aims to reduce the use of oil used in ground transportation, is in danger of missing its 2015 goals in part because electric vehicle sales are running below targets.
When policymakers drafted the clean energy plan in 2008, they set a short-term goal of having 10,000 electric vehicles on Hawaii’s roadways by 2015. The goals are in addition to other transportation objectives for reductions in vehicle miles traveled, increased efficiency of gas-powered vehicles and incorporation of more renewable fuels.
EV sales got off to a promising start last year with the introduction here of the first mass-marketed plug-in cars — the Nissan Leaf, Chevrolet Volt and Mitsubishi MiEV. The roughly 400 EVs sold last year was in line with the Hawaii Auto Dealers Association forecast of 380 sales for 2011.
Dealers expect EV sales to steadily increase to the point where there will be 5,200 electric vehicles on island roads in 2015. But that’s only half of the volume anticipated in the initiative.
"The (state) targets seem pretty optimistic," said Dave Rolf, executive director of the Hawaii Auto Dealers Association, who put together the trade group’s projections. Rolf said Hawaii dealers have worked to encourage the market growth, including making electric vehicles the theme of the last two auto shows, pushing to get Hawaii added as one of the launch markets for the Nissan Leaf and helping get federal grant money to train local mechanics to work on EVs.
"Hawaii Auto Dealers Association has done everything it can to help promote the EV market," he said.
EV choices in Hawaii continue to expand with Toyota now offering a plug-in version of the Prius and Ford preparing to bring in the all-electric Focus. By the end of the year, EVs will be available for sale at 28 of Hawaii’s 66 car dealerships, Rolf said. "Dealerships report sufficient availability of EV inventory," Rolf wrote in an email to the state Energy Office.
The state and federal government also have worked to promote electric vehicles in Hawaii, providing funds for a network of public charging stations, offering rebates and tax credits for buying them and passing laws for benefits such as free parking. Hawaiian Electric Co. even offers discount rates for EV charging.
But the incentive package lost some of its sizzle in May when a state program that provided buyers with $4,500 for plug-in electric vehicles ended after issuing more than 450 rebates totaling $2 million. Hawaii car buyers are still eligible for federal tax incentives of up to $7,500 for qualified plug-in EVs. The manufacturers suggested retail price for mainstream EVs sold in Hawaii after the federal tax break ranges from $21,625 for the MiEV to $32,025 for the Toyota Prius Plug-in Hybrid Advanced.
Transportation and power generation are two of four sectors of the energy economy targeted in the initiative. The other two are energy efficiency and renewable fuels. The initiative’s overall goal is to have "clean energy" satisfy 70 percent of the state’s energy demand by 2030, with 40 percent coming from renewable energy and 30 percent coming from energy efficiency.
The long-range goal for the transportation sector is to reduce consumption of petroleum in ground transportation by 70 percent, or about 385 million gallons a year by 2030.
Unlike the electrical generation and efficiency targets, which are written into state law and carry penalties for falling short, the goals under the transportation sector are voluntary.
"The numbers are not projections, but ambitious transportation goals that the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative is targeting," said Mark Glick, state Energy Office administrator. "All transportation goals are challenging because they do not have the strength of being mandated by law. Other challenges include price point and range anxiety, which are out of our control and significantly influenced by market forces," he said.
Range anxiety refers to EV drivers worrying their car may run out of power before they reach the nearest charging stations. The state has a program to have more than 200 charging stations at public locations to help alleviate that.
Glick said he is optimistic consumer acceptance of EVs will grow over time.
"As new technology improves the performance of EVs and as prices become more affordable, Hawaii can expect to see an increase in the number of EVs registered in the state," Glick said.
