The Cook Political Report on Thursday shifted its rating in the Hawaii U.S. Senate race from "toss up" to "lean Democrat," concluding that former Gov. Linda Lingle’s campaign would need a big break to prevail over U.S. Rep. Mazie Hirono.
The shift follows assessments from other national political analysts that Lingle, a Republican in a traditionally Democratic state, will have difficulty persuading enough voters to split their ballots with Hawaii-born President Barack Obama up for re-election.
Jennifer Duffy, a Cook Political Report senior editor, had rated the race a "toss up" shortly after Lingle formally announced her campaign last October, describing her as a solid campaigner and fundraiser with a record of accomplishment and the best candidate the GOP could hope for in a Democratic state. But Duffy noted at the time that it was unclear whether Lingle could overcome the challenges of running in a presidential election year.
The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics has moved its Crystal Ball rating in Hawaii from "leans Democratic" to "likely Democratic," calling Hirono a stronger favorite to win. The Rothenberg Political Report has consistently rated the race "lean Democrat."
The ratings might not have an influence on Hawaii voters, but national Republican donors and interest groups may be less likely to invest in Hawaii in the weeks before the November election if they think Lingle’s chances have dimmed.
The Lingle campaign was not immediately available for comment Thursday.
The Hirono campaign, meanwhile, released the results of an internal poll that show the congresswoman with a double-digit lead.
Lingle, a moderate who is campaigning as bipartisan, has had to counter the broad support in the islands for Obama and the impact of a potential Republican takeover of the Senate on U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye, D-Hawaii.
Hirono has sponsored television advertisements featuring an audio recording of Lingle telling a Laie rally that she would vote for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the Republican presidential candidate.
The Lingle campaign has also been involved in a public scrap with Inouye that Lingle herself escalated Thursday.
Lingle released a somber new video that accuses Inouye of launching a "personal character attack" against her. Inouye had been critical of a previous Lingle campaign video that claimed Lingle would be a partner to Inouye in the Senate.
The Lingle campaign had claimed that Inouye, chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee and the Senate president pro tempore, would retain power through his senority no matter which political party controlled the Senate.
Inouye, who asked the Lingle campaign to stop using the video, described it as misleading and said it suggested a relationship between the two that did not exist.
Lingle responded in the new video Thursday by saying that she did work with Inouye when she was governor on issues such as saving the Pearl Harbor Naval Shipyard from possible closure, Native Hawaiian federal recognition and the use of federal stimulus money.
Lingle said Inouye, who has endorsed Hirono, wants to pick the next senator.
"Sen. Inouye believes he should be the one to determine who should step down and who should step up in Hawaii politics," she says in the video. "He seems to believe that he should be the one who picks our next United States senator. But with all due respect to the senior senator, I believe that decision is up to you, the people of Hawaii."
