Higher voter turnout could cut both ways

For the first time, Hawaii is going to welcome more than 700,000 potential voters to democracy.

How many will accept the invitation and walk right in remains to be seen, but voter numbers are a big deal.

Election officials will not tally up the complete numbers until Monday, but this week they are saying that the state will climb above 700,000 for the first time this year.

Voting will start for many on Tuesday because absentee ballots go in the mail on Monday.

If all elections are important, this year is more important than most because voters will pick a mayor in Honolulu and, by extension, vote to either keep the heavy rail plan endorsed by former acting Mayor Kirk Caldwell or go with former Gov. Ben Cayetano’s bus transit system.

The choice to replace longtime Sen. Daniel K. Akaka is just as important because picking either Democratic Rep. Mazie Hirono or former GOP Gov. Linda Lingle could give Republicans or Democrats a majority in the U.S. Senate.

The critical item is that Hawaii, like many other states, turns up the vote in presidential election years.

In 2008, nearly 210,000 more voted in the general than the primary. In 2004, the increase was 179,000.

In nonpresidential years, the turnout is smaller, perhaps a bit more or less than 100,000 more.

The reason why voter numbers in Hawaii are a big deal is because few people vote, so every ballot cast is that more powerful.

"In 2010, we had the lowest voter turnout in the nation, which meant that essentially 14 percent of the people in Hawaii determined who was elected," says David Chang, Hawaii GOP chairman.

With few contested races in the primary, there was little reason for GOP voters to come out for this year’s August primary — but now in the general election, Chang says, his minority party could get a boost.

It all could play a part in the race for mayor.

"I am seeing many R’s proactively helping Ben. I think higher voter turnout in general will help R’s, not necessarily because of just the mayor’s race," Chang said.

If Cayetano, who had nearly 100,000 votes in the primary to Caldwell’s almost 60,000 votes, is in place to win in the general, it will be a somewhat odd combination of long-time Cayetano supporters, including Filipino-American voters, Republi- cans who have adopted an anti-rail stance and those who would not be served by the $5.2 billion rail line.

A high vote turnout is likely to help Cayetano more than it would Caldwell, who is starting to call in the Democratic regulars.

Even Sen. Daniel K. Inouye is featured in commercials endorsing Caldwell.

What is not clear is how much of that increased turnout will help GOP standard-bearer Lingle in her race against Democrat Hirono.

Dante Carpenter, Democratic state chairman, calls the race for the Senate "crucial to Hawaii" and expects that the bigger-than-average turnout will be helping Democrats.

"We are working every possible angle to get people registered and get them to vote," Carpenter said.

Lingle is easily the strongest Republican running for the U.S. Senate is decades, but whether that will be enough in a Democratic state with an increased voter turnout is an open question.

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Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com