The statewide average price of gas in Hawaii is up above $4 a gallon to $4.04 a gallon, according to the AAA Hawaii Weekend Gas Watch.

Honolulu’s average remains just under $4 at $3.98 a gallon. That price is up 5 cents from last week’s average but still a nickel less than last month and 16 cents less than the same time last year.

Hilo saw the biggest weekly jump, up 12 cents to $4.06 a gallon, which is 4 cents more than last month’s price and 16 cents less than at this time last year.

Prices in Wailuku went up 3 cents to $4.04 a gallon, about 3 cents lower than last month’s average and 32 cents lower than last year.

"Motorists in six states — Colo­rado, Idaho, Okla­homa, Minnesota, Utah and Wyoming — currently pay less than $3 a gallon at the pump, while the state average in Hawaii tops more than $4 per gallon," according to AAA Hawaii Branch Supervisor Cynthia Hall. "The highest average prices in the continental United States are found in California and also in the Northeast, where effects of superstorm Sandy continue to be felt."

Forecasters expect ample oil supplies and weak U.S. demand will keep a lid on gas prices nationally. The average price of a gallon of gasoline will fall 5 percent to $3.44, according to the Energy Department.

"Everything is lining up to lead to softer prices this year," said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at the Oil Price Information Service.

Forecasters caution that they can’t predict other factors like tensions in the Middle East, refinery problems or hurricanes along the U.S. Gulf Coast — in other words, the same events that caused gasoline prices to spike in 2011 and 2012. Any or all of those troubles could crop up again in 2013 and push pump prices above last year’s record average of $3.63 a gallon.

The government expected gas to average about $3 during 2011. Then came the Arab Spring, which included the shutdown of Libya’s oil production. Oil prices shot up, and gasoline averaged $3.53 for the year. The government’s forecast for last year also turned out to be too low, by 18 cents per gallon.

Gas prices set records each of the past two years for a few reasons. Global demand has risen as the developing economies of Asia, Latin America and the Middle East burn more gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. At the same time, unrest in the Middle East has sparked fears of widespread supply disruptions in a region that produces a quarter of the world’s oil. That makes traders willing to pay higher prices upfront for oil as a way to protect against possible dramatic price spikes in the future.

In the U.S. last year, several refineries and pipelines had problems that reduced gasoline supplies, especially on the West Coast and in the Midwest, helping to push pump prices even higher.

This year, global oil demand is expected to rise slightly again, but increased production, especially in the U.S., should keep supplies ample. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said this week that American production will grow next year by 900,000 barrels per day, the nation’s biggest single-year increase ever. By 2014, U.S. production will reach its highest level since 1988.

At the same time, U.S. gasoline consumption is back down to 2002 levels because of more fuel-efficient cars and the tepid economy. It isn’t expected to rise this year or next, according to the Energy Department.

That means the U.S. will need to import less oil, which will increase global supplies and help tamp down prices somewhat.

The current average retail price of gasoline is $3.31 per gallon, 6 cents lower than last year, according to AAA, OPIS and Wright Express. AAA predicts gas won’t surpass $3.80 a gallon this year.

The peak last year was $3.94, reached in April. The auto club also says average pump prices could drop as low as $3.20, a level that the country hasn’t seen since February 2011.

Tom Kloza of OPIS expects price differences between regions of the country will remain large, and local prices could be volatile as supplies build and dwindle. In Utah, drivers are paying $2.88 per gallon on average, while in New York drivers are paying $3.75. Just in the last four months, gasoline supplies on the West Coast fell to their lowest level in a generation, then rose to where they are now, their highest level in a generation.

AAA forecasts the national average will peak between $3.60 and $3.80 in the spring, then drop to between $3.20 and $3.40 by midsummer. It will rise again during the hurricane season along the Gulf Coast, the nation’s oil-refining hub, before moving lower toward the end of the year.

It’s that up-and-down movement that will dictate drivers’ moods. Drivers tend to remember what they paid for their last fill-up — not that they may have paid a little less a year ago, Hamilton said.

"People have a short reference point," he said.

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The Associated Press contributed to this story.