State House power shifts make every bill problematic

Almost every day there is a rumble along the San Andreas Fault zone.

With California’s major population and businesses along the earthquake area, it is not surprising that the San Andreas Fault is the most studied seismic area in the world.

In political geography, perhaps the most understudied, unstable fault zone also resides within the Pacific Rim of Fire: the Hawaii House of Representatives.

The weekend rain-triggered rockfalls in Hawaii Kai and Kalihi are nothing compared to the potential for destruction among the 51 members of the House.

Maui Democrat Joe Souki took over leadership of the House with the votes of the seven House Republicans, an action immediately opening a political fault zone.

Rep. Calvin Say, the 13-year veteran former speaker, lost his House leadership position in the shuffle, but not his position as leader of the group of 18 Democrats opposed to Souki.

The fracture lines will not be about personalities or their relative power; the splits will happen over pieces of legislation and their costs.

No longer is it enough to just secure the support of the faction running the House. One lobbyist was grumbling last week that because of the power shifts, all 51 lawmakers have to be queried about their support on a specific bill, because the alliances could shift.

For instance, Souki may favor some form of casino gambling, but his Judiciary Chairman Rep. Karl Rhoads doesn’t like it, although some members of Say’s group might favor it.

Gambling is something of a legislative perennial that almost always fails to thrive in one chamber or the other. Taxes, however, are a much better bet for controversy.

A majority of the Democrats in the House have made a written pledge not to raise the general excise tax, and Senate President Donna Mercado Kim has added her criticism of raising taxes. So the proposals by Gov. Neil Abercrombie to raise money by taxing soda and making permanent an increase in the tourist tax are about all that is left to fund plans for increasing or restoring state services.

Will bills from the Group of 18 be heard and passed by the Souki House? Will Souki supporters get special expedited treatment with their legislation?

So far there is more fear than fact regarding the House’s overall plans.

The House Democrats have had only one caucus meeting with both factions attending. Instead, lawmakers say, there have been lots of small side meetings, but no clear statement of policy.

Another issue ripe for House-splitting tectonic politics is gay marriage. In previous years under Say, the guiding provision was to wait to see how the civil union law works. Now with renewed pressure for a law opening marriage to all, the House will be left to decide precisely how liberal it wants to be.

Souki himself will be challenged this year because the budget negotiations always come down to a decision on the pay for public employees. Collective bargaining numbers are still up in the air, but it was eye-opening to hear from the Abercrombie-appointed Board of Education that it would cost $1 billion to give teachers the pay raises they want. Can the state afford that and then something similar for all other public workers?

Souki came into power with the tacit support of the public unions, but as collective bargaining talks continue, watch for more and more fault lines to spread across a decidedly unstable House.

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Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.