U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz raised more than $1.1 million in the past three months for his election campaign next year, a warning flare to other Democrats who are thinking about challenging him in the primary.
Schatz drew most of the money from Hawaii donors, according to his campaign advisers, a pattern that may not be sustainable at the same levels over time but demonstrates to local and national Democrats that he has a financial base of support at home.
A seven-figure fundraising quarter also helps Schatz, who was appointed by Gov. Neil Abercrombie in December to replace the late U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye, answer doubts about whether he can stand alone as a marquee candidate.
U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, who was Inouye’s preference as his replacement, has said she is considering primary challenges to Schatz or Abercrombie. The congresswoman is expected to make her decision by this summer, since she needs time to raise money and build a campaign organization for a statewide race.
A senior campaign adviser to Schatz, speaking anonymously, said his April quarterly fundraising report "demonstrates that he’s going to have the resources that are going to be sufficient to withstand challenges from anybody."
Schatz raised about $977,000 from individual donors between January and the end of March, according to a draft of the fundraising report, and about $138,900 from political action committees. The campaign estimates that nearly 80 percent of the money came from Hawaii donors.
The Schatz campaign has emphasized early fundraising and endorsements because of the critical nature of next year’s election and the uncertainty over a primary challenge.
No incumbent U.S. senator has lost an election in Hawaii, and a victory next year to fill out the remaining two years of Inouye’s six-year term would put Schatz on a path for 2016 and beyond. Hanabusa and other prominent Democrats understand that next year might be the ripest opportunity to claim the Senate seat.
Schatz has won endorsements from the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 1260, the Hawaii Building and Construction Trades Council, the League of Conservation Voters and the University of Hawaii Professional Assembly.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which helps elect Democrats nationally, will also back Schatz, which will help the new senator with fundraising and endorsements on the mainland.
"Money follows money," the Schatz campaign adviser said.
Hanabusa, according to one of her advisers, speaking anonymously, would likely be able to raise money quickly once she makes her decision because of pent-up demand among local and national supporters. The congresswoman, a former labor attorney, would also likely earn the endorsements of influential labor unions.
But the longer Hanabusa waits, and the more money and endorsements that flow to Schatz and Abercrombie, the more difficult the climb.
Neal Milner, a professor emeritus of political science at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, said a primary challenger to Schatz would have to show he or she can differentiate himself or herself from the senator on the issues and compete in fundraising.
"I doubt very much that he’s blown his wad here," Milner said. "If he can raise that much money that fast, he’s likely to be able to raise more."
Republicans have yet to identify a likely Senate contender.
"We understand that it will be an uphill battle, but I know many people didn’t give Tulsi the time of day when she first started, but she did very, very well," David Chang, the state GOP chairman, said of U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard’s successful Democratic campaign for Congress last year.
"So I think that it is possible that one of our people who have a (state) seat or who have run before come out and run a good campaign and you never know what happens," he said.
