U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa has decided to challenge U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz in the Democratic primary next year, according to a source close to her campaign.
Hanabusa was the late U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye’s choice as his replacement, and the senator had urged Gov. Neil Abercrombie to select her just before he died at 88 in December. Abercrombie instead chose Schatz, his lieutenant governor.
Hanabusa had been considering primary challenges to either Schatz or Abercrombie. A source close to her campaign said Monday that Hanabusa had decided on the Senate and was informing close allies.
A primary between Schatz, 40, and Hanabusa, 61, could open up generational as well as political fault lines within the Democratic Party. Schatz, a progressive, has the potential to build seniority in the Senate over a generation. Hanabusa, a more traditional liberal, will contend that her experience prepares her to have an immediate impact, the source said.
The campaign will also have the specter of Inouye, who was the state’s most powerful politician and commanded the loyalty of scores of influential Democrats.
"I certainly think the elements of the party that supported Inouye will support Hanabusa financially, and that could be significant," said John Hart, a Hawaii Pacific University communications professor.
Ironically, it was Inouye who often discouraged messy primaries. Inouye and the party’s establishment condemned then-U.S. Rep. Ed Case for challenging then-U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka in the 2006 primary. Akaka won after Democrats nationally and in Hawaii uniformly rallied behind the grandfatherly senator.
With Schatz an appointed — not elected — senator, and with Inouye’s wishes for Hanabusa still fresh, Democrats will likely be more divided than they were seven years ago.
"It shows the interesting shifts in the post-Inouye era," Hart said.
Despite their age difference, Schatz and Hanabusa were both first elected to political office in 1998 — Schatz to the state House, Hanabusa to the state Senate. But Hanabusa’s supporters will argue that Hanabusa has the more distinguished leadership experience, the Hanabusa campaign source said. She served as chairwoman of the Senate Judiciary Committee and as Senate majority leader and was the first woman chosen Senate president.
"She just has a lot more substantive experience," the source said.
The election next year is for the remaining two years of Inouye’s six-year term, which expires in 2016.
The main obstacle for Hanabusa, Hart and others say, is having to run against an incumbent. No sitting U.S. senator from Hawaii has ever lost an election.
Hanabusa will also have to shed any perception that she is running out of frustration at being passed over by Abercrombie for the appointment. Political analysts say she will have to establish very early why she is better suited than Schatz to serve Hawaii in the Senate — a delicate argument, since Democrats might be turned off by negative claims that Schatz is unprepared.
Hanabusa’s supporters will contend that Inouye had identified her as a potential successor well before his illness and deathbed wish. "That’s based on talent and ability, not that he wanted to be a kingmaker," the Hanabusa campaign source said.
Schatz, a former state Democratic Party chairman, raised more than $1.1 million over the past three months and has earned several early endorsements, including from the University of Hawaii Professional Assembly and the League of Conservation Voters.
Hanabusa, a former labor attorney, is likely to gain the support of several labor unions. She will also benefit from some of Inouye’s prominent allies in the business community.
Early polls taken for Hanabusa and for labor interests showed the congresswoman faring well in hypothetical primaries against either Schatz or Abercrombie.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is supporting Schatz, which might help Schatz attract support from national Democrats looking for guidance in the intraparty fight. Hanabusa met with the DSCC on Thursday to discuss a potential Senate campaign, and sources say the DSCC indicated it would back Schatz as an incumbent.
The DSCC, which helps elect Democrats to the Senate, sided with Akaka in the primary against Case in 2006. The national campaign committee also backed U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., the current DSCC chairman, when he faced a primary challenge in 2010.
Dante Carpenter, chairman of the Democratic Party of Hawaii, said he would prefer to avoid a primary between Schatz and Hanabusa. Hawaii’s seniority in the Senate disappeared with Inouye’s death in December and Akaka’s retirement in January. U.S. Sen. Mazie Hirono was elected to succeed Akaka, while U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard was elected to replace Hirono.
Hanabusa was elected to represent urban Honolulu’s 1st Congressional District in 2010 and re-elected in 2012. She would have to give up her seat to run for the Senate, which will set off competition among several Democrats to replace her.
"It’s not really up to us to make the ultimate decision," Carpenter said. "We’re hoping that cooler heads will prevail and they’ll think of the longer term."
