What will it take to win Hawaii Congressional District 1?
This is one strange district. The urban Honolulu district runs from Hawaii Kai to Kapolei and touches both Democratic and Republican strongholds.
Its current U.S. representative, Colleen Hanabusa, says she wants to be a U.S. senator and will challenge Sen. Brian Schatz, the newly appointed successor to Sen. Daniel K. Inouye. So the seat will be open, meaning it is the political equivalent of a jump ball.
Political scientists and sociologists could have a field day parsing the trends and different groups within CD1.
By including both sides of Honolulu’s economic divide, the urban Honolulu District is decidedly difficult to categorize.
In other words, appealing to voters along Kalihi’s Eluwene Street will not call for the same message given to voters on Hunakai Street in Kahala.
It is the only district in Hawaii that elected a Republican. The first was Pat Saiki in 1987 and then Charles Djou for seven months in 2010-11.
It is also the only district to elect Neil Abercrombie twice. He won a special election seat from Sept 20, 1986, to Jan. 3, 1987, to fill the vacancy left when the late former Rep. Cecil Heftel ran for governor. Abercrombie lost the election for the full two-year term, but returned to serve from 1991 to 2011.
So far there is only one declared candidate, City Council newcomer Stanley Chang, who represents East Honolulu.
The expectation, however, is for the field to be packed. There are eight incumbent state senators (Sam Slom, Les Ihara, Brian Taniguchi, Suzanne Chun Oakland, Donna Mercado Kim, Glenn Wakai, Will Espero and Mike Gabbard) who live in CD1 and could run without being forced to give up their state posts.
Even that list of possible candidates is not definitive, because federal law requires only that members of Congress live in their state, not in their exact congressional district.
It is the kind of district that calls for politicians who can see both sides of the coin in debates ranging from minimum wage to health care.
For instance, according to the latest Census Bureau figures, about 31 percent of the households contain someone under the age of 18. At the same time, about 32 percent of those living in a household in the district are 65 or older.
For politicians, that means that every promise of improved schools and education also should contain a matching promise on preserving Social Security and Medicare.
Poverty figures are also complex. Just 5.4 percent of all families reported income levels below the poverty level, but those families with a single, female head of household, the poverty figures were 22.6 percent for those with children under 18 and 23.6 for those with a kid under 5.
So far there has been no word from either former Mayor Mufi Hannemann or former Rep. Ed Case, although both names have been mentioned.
Chang is smart to get out early, but what is best in this race is to be early and rich, because a flooded field will favor a candidate who is able to rise above the rest of the herd with a memorable message.
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Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.