The number of tropical storms and hurricanes threatening Hawaii is expected to increase significantly after 2075 due to climate change, a group of researchers said.
But even with the increase, tropical storms and hurricanes passing near Hawaii will continue to be rare events, said Hiroki Murakami, one of the researchers.
"Although the increase is significant … the storm occurrence is very rare," said Murakami, lead researcher at the International Pacific Research Center at the University of Hawaii-Manoa.
Murakami and researchers Bin Wang, Tim Li and Akio Kitoh were among the authors of a study called "Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii," which appeared Sunday in the online magazine Nature Climate Change.
The study was based on computer models operating under global-warming scenarios, simulating tropical cyclones ranging from tropical storms to hurricanes.
Tropical storms have wind speeds from 39 to 73 miles per hour, while hurricanes are 74 mph or higher, according to the National Weather Service.
Murakami, interviewed Tuesday, said that, based on weather records, tropical storms and hurricanes come near Hawaii once every four years.
Murakami said that because of global warming, the frequency may become once every two years.
"Only two made landfall in 30 years, so it is a very rare event," he said.
Murakami said ocean temperatures could increase by 2.4 degrees in the Hawaii region, raising moisture in the air and contributing to a higher likelihood of more tropical storms and hurricanes. He said winds from east to west are expected to carry tropical storms and hurricanes developing near Baja, Calif., closer to Hawaii.
