Hawaii governors live and die by the health of our economy, and its robust condition ahead of the 2014 election is the main reason Gov. Neil Abercrombie is flying high despite low approval ratings throughout his first term.
He has no Democratic opposition after U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa decided to run for the U.S. Senate.
The only name Republican expressing even tepid interest is former Lt. Gov. James "Duke" Aiona, whom Abercrombie defeated handily in 2010.
Governors have little control of the tourism-driven local economy, which mostly rises and falls on national and international trends.
Our governors take more credit than they deserve when the economy is strong and get more blame than deserved when itgoessouth.
But basic voter psychology is to stay the course when we’re flush and look for change when we’re not.
Former Gov. John Waihee III rode Hawaii’s Japanese investment boom to immense popularity in his first term, but his political stock tanked after the Japanese bubble burst and the economy sagged.
His successor, Ben Cayetano, caught eight years of recession bookended by the Gulf War and 9/11, and struggled politically through his two terms.
Economic malaise was the main reason for Linda Lingle’s election as Hawaii’s first Republican governor in 40 years.
She caught the beginning of a national recovery that grew the local economy and carried her to easy re-election.
But the Great Recession hit in her second term, and Lingle limped out of office, giving Aiona little chance of holding the job against Abercrombie and the Democrats.
Like Lingle, Abercrombie caught the start of the national recovery that filled Waikiki hotels and state coffers, leaving him politically golden despite a string of self-inflicted wounds that sank his popularity.
While governors have little to do with outside forces that determine our underlying economic health, they can be judged on how they manage state finances in bad times.
By objective measures, Abercrombie has done a far better job than Lingle.
Lingle introduced the debilitating Furlough Fridays that made Hawaii a national joke. She balanced her final budget by throwing up her hands and deferring state tax refunds into the next fiscal year, leaving her successor in a deep hole.
Abercrombie also negotiated labor contracts that traded pay cuts for days off but spread them out to avoid furlough days that shut down government.
He could have gotten away with extending Lingle’s delay of tax refunds another year until the economy improved, but bit the bullet and paid it off so the state could enjoy the full benefit of the recovery when it came.
The state is now running a healthy surplus as a result of that decision, and it’s fair that Abercrombie reaps the political rewards.
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Reach David Shapiro at volcanicash@gmail.com or blog.volcanicash.net.
