More has just been reported on the current Syria crisis.
Moscow has proposed to call on the Syrian regime to place its chemical weapons under an international monitoring group.
Damascus’s foreign minister says Syria "welcomes" this Russian proposal.
Given Bashar al-Assad’s recent CBS-PBS interview with Charlie Rose —in which he apparently makes veiled threats of retaliation against the United States, on the one hand, and the Syrian foreign minister’s welcoming of Russia’s proposal to place Syrian chemicals under non-Syrian control, on the other hand — it would appear that the Assad government is not entirely unified in its approach to the situation.
It has been widely reported before that Bashar’s brother, Maher, is in control of the nastier bits in the Syrian military and paramilitary apparatus. It was probably a unit under Maher’s control (the 4th Armored Division) that launched the attack on a rebel-held Damascus suburb using rockets with sarin gas that killed a large number of civilians, including several hundred children. Whether this was done with Bashar’s assent we do not know. But if there is a major split within the Damascus regime, it will be crucial to see whether those who are "welcoming" Moscow’s face-saving, not to mention strike-avoiding proposal, will carry the day.
If things work out and an international monitoring group does take control of Syrian chemical weapons, this could prove to be a crucial first step toward a negotiated resolution to the civil war in that country.
Some people will say that President Barack Obama blinked; many will say he "faked out" the other side. But Moscow will have certainly blinked. And Damascus will have looked over its shoulder at the Russians, then decided it was time to blink.
Now the rebels’ Sunni backers (the Saudis and the Qataris, et al.) have to blink. Then the rebels have to be told to blink or the West will no longer hold their coats. Not to mention the Iranians, who have nothing to gain if the U.S. hits Assad, but much to gain if international diplomacy eventually keeps their Shiite allies in some kind of a safe place.
Let us pray for the whole blinking lot of them to blink en masse!
Big-time gambler Barack Obama has just been dealt a winning hand on Syria if he chooses to play it:He needs to agree to wait and allow the UN report on chemical weapons to come in; he needs to "welcome" the Russian proposal; and he needs to call the opposition’s bluff. This will put the Syrians, the Russians and the U.S. Congress into a position of having to respond positively or shoulder at least partial responsibility for the consequences of rejection.
We are at a critical juncture in this drama.
