Schatz’s campaign is a winner, candidate tells would-be donors

U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz’s advisers have prepared a campaign status memo for potential donors that depicts U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa’s campaign as "badly foundering" and not up to the rigors of a U.S. Senate race.

The memo argues that Schatz has built a winning campaign that leads Hanabusa in fundraising and endorsements. The memo also cites the shift to the left in Hawaii politics over the past decade, arguing that progressive ideology, and not ethnicity, has been the dominant factor in Democratic primaries.

The memo, which was provided to The Hill, a Capitol Hill newspaper, and shared with the Hono­lulu Star-Advertiser, also notes that Hawaii has never voted an incumbent senator out of office.

"Congresswoman Hanabusa has struggled since day one to establish a winning campaign or a coherent rationale for her candidacy," states the memo, dated Monday. "Hanabusa badly trails Schatz in fundraising and endorsements, and she has had a series of missteps evidencing that her campaign is not up to the rigors of a Senate race."

Peter Boylan, a spokes­man for the Hanabusa campaign, said voters care about experience, effectiveness and leadership, not money or political labels. "There’s a lot more to winning over voters in Hawaii than this sort of cynical and mechanical political calculation," he said in a statement. "The Schatz campaign seems to have forgotten that Brian was appointed to his seat by Gov. (Neil) Abercrombie, and the people of Hawaii have yet to express their opinion about who can best serve them in the United States Senate.

"In Hawaii, raising the most money or getting the most endorsements doesn’t always win the race. The voters are smarter than that. Nor do Hawaii voters cast their ballots based on identification with a particular ideology. It’s more accurate to say that they have preferred highly qualified candidates who reflect their core values."

Schatz and Hanabusa are competing in the primary to fill out the remaining two years of the late U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye’s six-year term.

The memo contends Hanabusa’s campaign "has failed to meet nearly every expectation and benchmark it initially set, and it is badly foundering as we enter the fourth quarter of 2013. From its inception, the Hanabusa campaign was propped up by outdated conventional wisdom and a handful of shifting self-created arguments why it would succeed."

Specifically, the memo notes that Hanabusa, a former labor attorney, was expected to receive strong backing from labor, yet Schatz has earned more union endorsements.

The memo notes that Schatz has raised $2.7 million to Hanabusa’s $1.1 million.

Hanabusa has also described herself as the more experienced candidate, yet the memo points to the Hanabusa campaign’s low-key rollout and the resignation of the deputy chief of staff in her congressional office over a fundraising flap with the pharmaceutical industry as examples of avoidable missteps.

But the most delicate issue raised by the memo is the Schatz campaign’s assessment of the Hawaii electorate. Schatz, who is 40 and white, and Hanabusa, who is 62 and Japanese-American, both have to navigate the state’s history of identity politics. Race, ethnicity and localism have a role in island campaigns, but that role is often subtle, and candidates who have tried to exploit such differences have seen the strategy backfire.

The memo portrays the Hawaii electorate as more progressive and more Democratic-leaning since 2002, mostly because of the influx of progressives who migrated to Hawaii in the 1990s and the impact of Hawaii-born President Barack Obama. The Schatz campaign points out that progressive Democrats, regardless of ethnicity, have won the major contested primaries over the past decade.

Boylan said he does not think most Hawaii voters define themselves with a "progressive politics" label. "They know what concerns them, they know what’s important to them, and they vote accordingly," he said. "They’re not going to vote for you just because you say, ‘I’m a progressive.’ They’ll vote for you if you really listen to them… and demonstrate real leadership in providing what they need to make their lives better."