Hawaii’s economy will continue to expand at a healthy clip over the next few years, but the sources of growth will shift, with the construction industry playing a larger role, a University of Hawaii economist said Thursday in an address to business leaders.

Growth in the visitor industry will ease from 2012 but will still be strong enough to set records for arrivals and spending this year, Jack Suyderhoud said at the First Hawaiian Bank Business Outlook Forum, held at the Blaisdell Concert Hall.

"We forecast 2014 to be a continuation of what we have seen since 2010: continued growth with strength in most sectors," said Suyderhoud, economic adviser to First Hawaiian Bank and professor of business economics at the University of Hawaii Shidler College of Business.

However, the balance of economic growth will change, he said.

"Tourism’s torrid pace will taper as the sector continues to grow, but at a more moderate pace," he said. "Construction will pick up, adding jobs. State and local government will contribute to growth, while federal spending will not."

The number of visitors traveling to Hawaii will eclipse last year’s record 8 million, although the pace of growth will moderate, he said. Suyderhoud is forecasting visitor arrivals to increase 4.8 percent this year and 3 percent in 2014.

Visitor spending, which grew by 18.1 percent in 2012, is forecast to increase by 6 percent in 2013 and 5.3 percent in 2014.

Stronger activity in the construction sector will help take up some of the slack from the moderation in tourism, he said.

"As tourism returns to less spectacular growth rates, construction will accelerate into 2014. Construction permit trends plus continued pent-up demand for housing will show up in robust double-digit percentage increases in construction completed," Suyderhoud said.

An improvement in the fiscal positions of the state and local governments will mean the resumption of deferred maintenance and infrastructure spending, according to Suyderhoud.

In addition to Suyderhoud’s presentation that focused on the outlook for Hawaii, the First Hawaiian Bank forum included a presentation on the global economic outlook by Richard Koo, chief economist for the Tokyo-based Nomura Research Institute.

Koo said he was hopeful policies being put in place by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would boost the country’s long-beleaguered economy. Japan’s economic health has a direct effect on Hawaii’s tourism industry since nearly 20 percent of the visitors to the state come from Japan.

"I’m actually quite optimistic about the Japanese economy for the first time in 20-some years," Koo said.

Abe’s economic policies, known as "Abenomics," include increasing private investment in Japan, keeping inflation-adjusted interest rates low and increasing spending.