Hawaii can expect mostly near-average to above-average rainfall over the winter wet season, but it probably won’t be enough to end the persistent severe drought plaguing regions of Maui and Hawaii island.
What’s more, this year’s rainy season will likely end with a dry spell, which probably means a drier-than-normal summer, said Kevin Kodama, National Weather Service senior meteorologist.
The Honolulu office of the National Weather Service presented its annual wet-season rainfall forecast Friday, a month later than usual because of the government shutdown. Hawaii’s wet season stretches from October though April.
While October was drier than average, with inconsistent storms and spotty rain coverage, look for more rainy weather ahead, officials said.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting that Hawaii will continue being influenced by neither El Nino nor La Nina global climate conditions, a situation that has lasted here for more than a year and will persist into early 2014.
A forecast of near- to above-average rainfall is consistent with recent El Nino/La Nina-neutral years, including last year, Kodama said.
But Climate Prediction Center long-range probabilities suggest an early start to the 2014 dry season, he said, with drier conditions likely taking hold during April.
While recovery is "probable" this winter in drought-stricken areas of Kauai and Oahu, it’s unlikely on Maui and Hawaii island due to the intensity and longevity of existing drought conditions, he said.
Some portion of Hawaii has been under severe drought since 2008, making this the longest drought in recent times.
"It’s almost like a broken record," Kodama said.
Sumner Erdman of Ulupalakua Ranch said dry conditions continue to dog his ranch on the leeward Upcountry slopes of Maui’s Haleakala. He said he’s been forced to reduce the ranch’s cow population by more than half over the five-year drought, from more than 2,400 cows to 1,200.
"It’s a little old," Erdman said of the drought.
As for Hawaii’s recently concluded dry season, from May to September, many areas from Kauai to Maui experienced near- to above-average rainfall as wet weather stretched into May and the islands experienced rainfall related to tropical cyclones Flossie in July and Gil in August, officials said.
But Hawaii island generally missed the cyclone weather and endured below-average rainfall. Extreme drought persisted in the Pohakuloa area through the entire dry season, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
In Maui County severe to extreme drought spread from Kihei to the Upcountry area this summer, and the county Department of Water Supply asked Upcountry residents to cut water use by 20 percent.
"The Big Island and Maui will need more than a few soakings to get rid of the drought," Kodama said.
Oahu and Kauai, by contrast, entered the wet season in relatively good shape, he said, with moderate drought found only in leeward areas.
Officials took the opportunity Friday to remind people to be prepared for a rainy season that can at times be violent and unpredictable:
» Do not drive on roads with fast-flowing water or cross flooded streams.
» Clean gutters and drainage ditches.
» If living in a flood-prone area, identify your evacuation routes ahead of time.
