Oahu’s housing market came oh-so-close to breaking a record last month.

The median price for single-family houses sold in November rose to $684,000 — or $1,000 shy of a peak reached in the red-hot period of June 2007 during the last real estate boom.

A Honolulu Board of Realtors report set for release today detailed the gain for previously owned single-family houses along with gains in sale volumes and the median sale price for condominiums.

Local economists have predicted for much of this year that median home prices are headed into the $700,000s next year and then the $800,000s after that.

Constrained production of new homes and relatively little inventory of existing homes on the market are helping drive up prices as a strengthening economy and job growth fuel buyer demand.

Local economist Paul Brewbaker said if anyone is surprised by the median home price, then they haven’t been paying attention to the market momentum this year.

"This is more of what we’ve been seeing," he said. "We’re probably not going back in the other direction."

Oahu median home sale prices hit some lofty levels in the second half of this year, reaching $677,250 in June and $675,000 in September.

November’s figure of $684,000 represented a 7 percent gain from $640,000 in the same month last year.

The surge in recent months helped push the median price for the first 11 months of the year to $645,000, which tops the prior annual record of $643,500 in 2007.

In Oahu’s condominium market the median price rose 2 percent to $330,000 in November from $325,000 a year earlier.

The condo median price peak set during the last market boom — $337,300 in May 2008 — was eclipsed in February at $340,000 and then rose to $345,000 in July.

For the first 11 months of the year, the median condo price is $330,000 and tops the prior annual record of $325,000 set in 2007.

Buyer demand has put pressure on prices as buyers compete with each other for relatively little inventory as mortgage interest rates remain at low levels.

The number of single-family house sales edged up 2 percent to 296 last month from 290 a year earlier. The number of condo sales rose 12 percent in the same period to 407 from 363.

Inventory of homes on the market has been growing this year but remains constrained.

There were 1,184 single-family houses on the market last month, up from 1,111 a year earlier but down from 1,406 two years ago.

Condo inventory last month stood at 1,636 compared with 1,561 a year ago and 1,869 two years ago.

If November’s sales volume were carried forward with no more homes listed for sale, the supply would be exhausted in 2.9 months for single-family houses and three months for condos.

Brewbaker said that such a low remaining supply puts the market under pressure that can produce 10 percent to 15 percent price appreciation. "It’s pretty much a seller’s market," he said.

The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization forecast in August that the median single-family house price will rise to $716,600 next year, $805,600 in 2015 and then $872,600 in 2016.

UHERO’s forecast for condo median prices is $356,800 next year, $398,700 in 2015 and $447,500 in 2016.

Peter Fuleky, a UHERO economist, said some relief to the pressure on Oahu home prices may come from rising interest rates, a continued rebound in inventory of homes on the market and plans to build several condo towers in Kakaako with several thousand units.

"That could ease the price pressure," he said. Fuleky added, however, that it’s hard to guess how much of an effect there might be. A detailed analysis and updated home price projections by UHERO won’t be done until the first quarter of next year.

GOING, GOING, GONE!
The number of homes and condos sold on Oahu in November with the median price and percentage change from the same month last year: