Speculation regarding former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann’s political future is adding extra spice to the 2014 political year.
Although he’s said nothing on the record to indicate he is running for office this year, the 59-year old Democrat does not discourage the political gossip that he will be a candidate.
Without a clear statement, most conjecture has Hannemann running again for urban Honolulu’s 1st Congressional District seat.
The Hannemann guessing game now also includes running again for governor, perhaps as a Republican or some form of independent.
In an email exchange with Honolulu Star-Advertiser reporter Derrick DePledge, Hannemann last week would only say, "Many people talk to me every day — Republicans, independents and Democrats — expressing to me that our government should be doing better, especially at the top."
Hannemann did confirm his interest, noting that "I am indeed in discussions with a lot of people, seeking their input and searching my heart on how and where to best serve our community and expect to make a decision at the right time."
The obstacle in Hannemann’s 28 years of running for office has always been the Democratic primary. Democratic voters did not support him in a 1990 run for Congress against former U.S. Rep. Patsy Mink, for governor against Neil Abercrombie in 2010, and another congressional cam- paign in 2012 against then-City Councilwoman Tulsi Gabbard. In 2000 he lost a nonpartisan campaign for mayor against Jeremy Harris that was held in conjunction with the primary election.
As a moderate-to-conservative Democrat who worked for George H.W. Bush when Bush was vice president, Hannemann touches a different base of supporters than found in the Democratic primary. Because of that, Hannemann runs stronger in a general election where he can pick up a share of GOP, conservative and pro-business voters. Progressives and strong liberal voters do not care for his conservative social agenda or his "friendly to business" background.
For Hannemann to win in 2014, the first barrier to overcome would be the August primary.
He could run as a Republican in either of the two congressional campaigns, or theoretically also for the U.S. Senate. All three options would have little upside for Hannemann, except perhaps a GOP campaign for CD 1, which contains more conservative areas in East Ho-nolulu and Mililani.
The other intriguing political option is for Hannemann to avoid a gubernatorial primary and run as an independent for governor.
Besides gaining a larger and friendly voter base in a general election, Hannemann would also have two more months to raise money needed for a statewide campaign.
Running as an independent, however, is tricky if you are running for governor. The state Constitution requires that in the general election, candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run as a team, so Hannemann would need to buddy up with someone running as his L.G.
To run as an independent, you still have to have a political party, so Hannemann — like former Mayor Frank Fasi did — would need to form another political party by the Feb. 20 deadline for forming new political parties. After that, there would be a host of other requirements for getting a new party on the ballot, but it is possible and probably easier than running as a nonpartisan in the primary and getting enough votes to move to the general.
Back in 1994 when Fasi created the Best Party to elude the primary race, he ran with entertainer Danny Kaleikini as his lieutenant governor candidate. The pair came in second, losing to then-Lt. Gov. Ben Cayeta-no. The GOP team of Pat Saiki and Fred Hemmings came in third.
So this history lesson hints at two things.
First, Abercrombie would be wise to encourage both Hannemann and former GOP Lt. Gov. James "Duke" Aiona to get into the race for governor.
And, Hannemann needs to clearly and quickly discover what he is and what he wants.
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Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.
