After two decades of running and losing in primary elections, it is easy to see why former Mayor Mufi Hannemann wants to stay clear of those early races.
By forming an independent political party, Hannemann takes himself out of the Democratic primary. If his party qualifies and Hannemann finds a candidate to run as his lieutenant governor candidate then, the former Democratic mayor advances to the November general election.
That first winnowing of candidates in a primary has been Hannemann’s curse; his popularity in a general election was almost always more than his support in a primary.
It is interesting that Hannemann’s biggest primary election win was his first, back in 1986.
Then, Hannemann first tangled with Neil Abercrombie in a race for the U.S. House seat left open when Cec Heftel resigned to run for governor.
Hannemann won the primary election by just 1,162 votes. At the same time there was a special election to fill the remaining three months of Heftel’s term. Abercrombie won that race, Republican Pat Saiki came in second and Hannemann trailed in third place.
In the regular race, Hannemann won the primary but lost to Saiki in the general election. So there was certainly no Mufi bandwagon back then.
Interestingly, the 1986 Hannemann versus Abercrombie election foreshadowed the bitterness of the 2010 gubernatorial race.
The Honolulu Advertiser noted 28 years ago that Hannemann’s campaign tactics were at issue.
"The race is remembered most for the negative campaign ads Hannemann sponsored. The television and print ads suggested Abercrombie was soft on drugs, and quoted an old newspaper story that said he smoked marijuana. Abercrombie said the charge was untrue, and the ads created quite a stir," the newspaper said in a Hannemann profile.
Four years ago, Hannemann was again criticized for his campaign ads against Abercrombie and they were part of the reason Hannemann lost the primary.
As mentioned in an earlier column speculating on Hannemann’s options, the independent party ploy also gives Hannemann much-needed time to get ready to run.
A three-way general election race for governor will give voters options today they don’t know they have. In other words, the race gives the candidates a chance to present themselves anew and compare themselves to not one but to two other candidates.
Winning a three-way race is not as hard because it takes just a plurality, not a majority.
So between now and the primary election, Hannemann can spend his time first raising the $1 million or so needed for a statewide campaign and then launch his own "listening tour."
After being trounced by Abercrombie in 2010, Hannemann was careful in a 2012 race for the U.S. House not to unleash a frontal assault against Tulsi Gabbard, so that he wouldn’t be called a "bully." That didn’t work, either.
Now Hannemann should spend the time before the August primary repolishing his image.
That is the kind of strategy used by Abercrombie who went across the state four years ago shaking every hand he could and telling all that, "I have learned to listen."
Hannemann must recognize why voters walked away from him twice in the last four years, and that it wasn’t because of a fault in the voters, the media or his opponent.
Humble pie served properly could be a winning dish.