Abercrombie gains an edge in wider gubernatorial field

Republican James “Duke” Aiona thinks voters have “buyer’s remorse” after the recent Hawaii Poll showed him leading Gov. Neil Abercrombie in a rematch of the 2010 election that Aiona lost by 17 percentage points.

Mufi Hannemann, who lost to Abercrombie by 22 percentage points in the 2010 Democratic primary, expresses similar sentiments as he considers running this year as an independent.

It may not be buyer’s remorse so much as voter distress over the shopping options, and if that’s the case, Aiona and Hannemann will have a tough time achieving a different outcome from four years ago.

I hear many voters who supported Abercrombie in 2010 express unhappiness with his haughty manner and perceived flip-flops on what they thought were his principles.

But I hear few say they wish they had voted for Hannemann or Aiona, who they feel are even less aligned with their views on key issues.

With Abercrombie’s low 43 percent approval in the polls, Aiona could have a shot in a head-to-head general election, but in a three-way race with Hannemann, the likely scenario is that Aiona and Hannemann would split the anti-Abercrombie vote and hand the governor re-election by plurality.

While Abercrombie’s 43 percent voter approval looks dismal in a two-way race in which he needs a majority, in a three-way contest it’s golden.

If Abercrombie comes close to holding 43 percent — and it’s hard to imagine an incumbent Democrat with a $4 million bankroll and an improving economy wouldn’t — neither Aiona nor Hannemann has shown an ability to beat his number.

Aiona got only 40 percent of the vote in 2010, which is the Republican core plus some Democrats and independents who couldn’t live with Abercrombie. He’d lose some of the latter to Hannemann.

Hannemann got 37 percent against Abercrombie in 2010 and only 33 percent in a 2012 congressional race against Tulsi Gabbard. In the Hawaii Poll, only 39 percent said they’d even consider voting for him as an independent.

Not a promising trend line for the former Honolulu mayor.

Then there’s state Sen. David Ige, who is running against Abercrombie in the Democratic primary.

It’s remarkable that the little-known and underfunded Ige is within striking distance of the incumbent in the polls, and if he ends up the only challenger with a one-on-one shot at Abercrombie, he might have the best chance of taking him.

But as with Aiona and Hannemann, the numbers are against him. While Abercrombie’s overall voter approval is only 43 percent, it’s 53 percent among Demo­crats who will be voting in the primary.

And all of Abercrombie’s challengers will have to deal with his skilled campaign organization and the big wad of cash he’ll spend polishing his image between now and the election.

Reach David Shapiro at volcanicash@gmail.com or blog.volcanicash.net.