Hawaii’s economy is forecast to continue its steady expansion this year and next, although the visitor industry’s contribution to growth will not be as strong as previously thought, according to a report released Wednesday by the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism.
The main economic indicators shaping the forecast were mixed. The quarterly report included downward revisions in estimates for visitor arrivals and spending, as well as personal income growth. Growth in nonagricultural jobs, meanwhile, was revised up amid continuing declines in the unemployment rate.
The lower-than-expected growth in tourism and personal income prompted DBEDT economists to temper their estimate for gross domestic product, the state’s broadest measure of economic output. DBEDT lowered its GDP estimate for 2014 to 2.4 percent from its previous forecast of 2.6 percent issued in February. The department also revised downward its 2013 GDP growth rate to 2.1 percent from 2.4 percent in the February forecast.
Growth in the construction sector is helping take up some of the slack from the slowdown in tourism, said DBEDT Director Richard Lim, adding that the value of building permits increased 20.6 percent during the first quarter of 2014, helping boost job growth in the construction industry.
"Our labor force and employment figures are reaching record highs while unemployment claims continue to decline," Lim said in a news release.
The number of payroll jobs in Hawaii’s economy is forecast to grow to 626,200 in 2014, up from 617,600 in 2013. If the 2014 forecast holds true, it would surpass the previous record of 624,900 jobs reached at the last economic peak in 2007.
Despite the recovery in Hawaii’s construction industry, the number of jobs remains well below the cyclical peak. The number of construction jobs in Hawaii’s economy averaged 30,400 through the first three months of this year compared with 39,100 per month in 2007, according to data from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Major construction projects fueling growth in construction in the first quarter include a major expansionat Ala Moana Center, an overhaul by the Queen’s Medical Center of the former Hawaii Medical Center-West in Kapolei, and renovations at the Four Seasons Manele Bay Hotel on Lanai, according to DBEDT.
DBEDT revised downward its projection for 2014 visitor arrivals to a 0.7 percent gain from a 1.7 percent increase forecast in February. Visitor spending, previously forecast to grow by 3.4 percent, is now expected to increase by 2.3 percent in 2014.
Inflation-adjusted personal income is forecast to increase by 2.1 percent in 2014 and 2.2 percent in 2015. Those figures were revised downward from growth rates of 2.8 percent and 2.7 percent published by DBEDT in February.
STEADY GROWTH |
Year-over-year percentage changes through 2016 |
|
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
Visitor arrivals |
2.6 |
0.7 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
Payroll jobs |
1.9 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
|
Unemployment rate * |
4.7 |
4.2 |
4.0 |
3.8 |
Inflation rate |
1.8 |
2.1 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
Personal income ** |
1.2 |
2.1 |
2.2 |
2.1 |
Gross domestic product ** |
2.1 |
2.4 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
*Percentage of workforce; **Adjusted for inflation Figures for 2014-16 are forecasts |
Source: State Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism |