U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa holds an edge over U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz in the Democratic primary for Senate, a new Hawaii Poll shows, and voters who prefer the congresswoman cite her legislative experience as the main reason.
Voters who favor Schatz identify a combination of personality or style and legislative experience as the chief factors.
Hanabusa leads Schatz 50 percent to 42 percent, with 8 percent undecided.
Other public and private polls have shown Schatz with the advantage, however, and political analysts predict a close vote Saturday.
"This thing is going to come down to a dogfight," said John Hart, a Hawaii Pacific University communication professor. "We are now starting to approach, if trends continue, a margin-of-error race. What does this mean if you’re a voter? You should go out and vote. Your vote matters. Anyone who stays out of this one because they think somebody’s got it is wrong, wrong, wrong."
For Rebecca Hirakami, a teacher who lives in Kalihi, the difference between Hanabusa and Schatz is experience.
"To me they are very similar on issues," she said. "It’s just she just seems to have more experience."
Samson Spencer, who works in sales and lives in Aiea, believes Schatz, at 41, has the potential to build the kind of seniority that the late U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye did in the Senate, which over time gave Hawaii more influence in Washington. Hanabusa is 63.
"I remember how Inouye became a senior in the U.S. Senate. And I figured Schatz is the youngest, he has the best chance of becoming a senior if he stays in office long enough," he said.
The Hawaii Poll was conducted by phone July 21 to 29 among 458 likely primary voters statewide. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. The poll also asked voters to rate the candidate’s favorability, a sample that covered 612 likely voters statewide. The margin of error for that question was plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Hanabusa was up over Schatz 48 percent to 40 percent in the last Hawaii Poll in February, the same 8-point gap as in the new poll. But advisers to the Hanabusa campaign say privately that the split has fluctuated during that time.
The Hawaii Poll, more importantly, has been at odds with other public and private polls taken during the primary.
"There’s been a lot of discussion in this year’s cycle about whether or not pollsters are polling ethnic groups consistently, whether or not they are polling the right ratios of groups, how much landlines are being used versus cellphones — and how much that affects the poll — and whether or not we are controlling for ideological leaning," Hart said. "So I think we have to be very careful when we draw too much from these polls."
Hart and others familiar with the polling data say the biggest difference in the polls is the demographic representation of Japanese-American and white voters.
In the Hawaii Poll, 27 percent of voters interviewed were Japanese-American, and 22 percent were white. In some of the private polling, according to sources who have seen the breakdown, Japanese-Americans account for about 20 percent, and whites make up about 36 percent.
The contrasting demographics help explain the disparate poll results. In the Hawaii Poll, Hanabusa, who is Japanese-American, leads Schatz 54 percent to 36 percent among Japanese-Americans. Schatz, who is white, leads Hanabusa 57 percent to 38 percent among whites.
"It’s going to depend on how many Caucasians vote," Hart said. "Will there be this AJA last surge?"
Rebecca Ward, the president of Ward Research Inc., which did the Hawaii Poll for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now, recognizes that other pollsters view the primary electorate differently.
"I think it may surprise a lot of people," she said of Hanabusa’s lead. "But we see the strength among the traditional Democratic primary voters. These are generally those of Japanese and Filipino ancestry. And this time we see those of Hawaiian ancestry as well voting more strongly for Hanabusa than for Schatz."
For example, Hanabusa is up over Schatz 51 percent to 42 percent among traditional Democrats. The congresswoman, a former labor attorney, also leads the senator 53 percent to 42 percent in union households, a critical foundation of the Democratic voter base.
Some critics of the Hawaii Poll also say privately that the survey does not measure for ideology, such as whether primary voters describe themselves as liberal, moderate or conservative Democrat. The primary electorate has moved to the left over the past decade, particularly on the neighbor islands, although because of a lack of exit polling data, it is difficult to pinpoint the demographic shifts.
Hanabusa, a moderate, is up over Schatz, a liberal, 53 percent to 35 percent on the neighbor islands, a finding Ward and others suspect is tied to Hanabusa’s higher name recognition.
"We’re using the same voter profile that we used successfully in 2012," Ward explained. "We’ve been talking for 20 or 30 years — if not longer — about an imminent change in voter profile, and we haven’t seen it."
Voters perceive Hanabusa and Schatz favorably — 57 percent for the congresswoman; 54 percent for the senator — but there appears to be an undercurrent of hostility between the two Democrats’ supporters.
Seventeen percent of voters who back Schatz are doing so mainly because they do not like Hanabusa, the poll found. Eleven percent of Hanabusa voters prefer her because they do not like Schatz.
Eleven percent also said they favor Hanabusa because of endorsements from other politicians. Inouye, the late senator, had wanted Hanabusa to succeed him, but Gov. Neil Abercrombie appointed Schatz, his former lieutenant governor.
Just 4 percent of Schatz voters cited endorsements from other politicians. The senator has been endorsed by President Barack Obama; U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev.; former Vice President Al Gore; and several other prominent Democrats.
Twelve percent of Schatz voters listed the potential for seniority as the main reason for their support.
Hanabusa said she was encouraged by the poll results, especially since her campaign has not had the money Schatz has had for advertising.
"But we’re telling everyone that it’s to the wire, and we’re asking all our volunteers and our friends and supporters to just keep vigilant," she said.
Schatz pointed to the other polls that have him leading.
"This is the opposite of what every other poll has showed, but what really matters is who is effective in representing Hawaii’s values," he said in a statement. "Most all other polls show we are ahead because I’ve put our values to work in the U.S. Senate — and people are excited and motivated for us to run across the finish line together."
