State Rep. Mark Takai has pulled into a tie with state Senate President Donna Mercado Kim in the most recent Hawaii Poll, suggesting that the crowded Democratic primary for the 1st Congressional District seat has become a two-person race.
The poll showed Kim (Kalihi Valley-Moanalua-Halawa) and Takai (Halawa-Aiea-Newtown) each receiving support from 28 percent of those polled, while Honolulu City Councilman Stanley Chang (East Honolulu) was a distant third with 12 percent.
None of the other four candidates received 10 percent. The poll, done by Ward Research on behalf of the Honolulu Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now, has a margin of error of 5.6 percentage points.
The poll, conducted July 21-29, shows a giant leap for Takai, who has represented the 33rd state House district since 1994. Takai was the choice of only 21 percent of voters during the February Hawaii Poll, 10 percentage points behind Kim’s front-running 31 percent.
The other four Democrats in the race, in order of how they did in the poll, are Councilman Ikaika Anderson (Windward Oahu), state Sen. Will Espero (D, Ewa Beach-Iroquois Point), Councilman Joey Manahan (Kalihi) and human rights activist Kathryn Xian.
Relatively unknown when he announced his candidacy a year ago and even when the February poll was taken, Takai has succeeded in making himself recognizable and a viable option for voters, said Rebecca Ward, president of Ward Research.
VoteVets.org’s decision earlier this month to spend $100,000 in TV ads to support Takai’s candidacy, as well as several other recent endorsements, have also boosted his campaign, Ward said.
Jerry Burris, a freelance writer and former editorial page editor for The Honolulu Advertiser, agreed.
As the lineup of Democratic hopefuls formed after incumbent Congresswoman Colleen Hanabusa’s decision to forgo a re-election bid, Kim was clearly the best-known candidate and front-runner, Burris said, "but by campaigning and advertising, Mark has put himself into play."
Chang was the only other one in the field who showed a gain since February (Manahan was not part of the February poll), and that was just a 2-percentage-point uptick. That is not enough to put him in contention unless he is somehow able to capture nearly all 13 percent of the undecided voters and the two front-runners lose votes, Ward said.
"The change has really been (with) Mark Takai," she said. "Nobody else really has momentum."
Burris also reads the poll results as showing a two-person race that could hinge on how the 13 percent of undecided voters choose.
"There’s still a substantial amount of undecideds," relatively high for this close to an election, he said.
What’s clear, however, is that the votes are gravitating to the two front-runners.
"Voters are going to have to make a choice between one of two people, and if they vote for one of the second-tier candidates, they’re simply wasting their votes," Burris said.
Punchbowl resident Esther Maniago, 78, said that like Kim, she was raised in Kalihi. Maniago said she will vote for Kim because she can relate to how a girl growing up in Kalihi learns to be tough.
"She’s going to fight for what she believes in," she said.
Maniago is looking for candidates who are sincere and keep their word, and Kim fits that bill, too, she said.
Ewa Beach resident Roy Nakamura, 85, said he had a hard time sorting through the seven Democrats but ultimately checked Takai’s name on his absentee mail-in ballot.
Nakamura said he can’t really point to any issues or group of issues that made Takai more attractive to him than the other candidates. But in general, he said, he looks for candidates who get the work done.
"Some guys are just talk, talk, talk," he said. "I don’t want a guy that thinks about doing this and then turns around and leaves the problem behind."
Curiously, the poll shows Takai did best among women surveyed, while Kim was tops among men. Kim scored highest among Caucasian and Filipino voters, while Takai earned support from the most Japanese and Hawaiian voters.
Anderson, who is Native Hawaiian, scored second highest among those polled who identified themselves as Hawaiians. Manahan, who was born in the Philippines and came to Hawaii as a teenager, scored second highest among Filipinos.
Anderson had the greatest number of supporters among those under 35, followed by Chang. Kim and Takai were overwhelmingly the choice of those 55 and older.
Kim said polls are just "snapshots in time" and that the only poll that matters is on primary election day.
"It’s up to the voters now," she said.
Kim said that in the last week she will continue to emphasize her experience and "my record of dealing with tough issues."
Takai said he is "cautiously optimistic." His campaign’s game plan, which included putting a steady stream of ads on TV starting July 9, was premised on putting himself into position to win the primary at this juncture, he said.
Chang and Anderson both said they still consider themselves in contention despite the latest poll results and will continue their fight through Saturday.
"We’re feeling very good about our momentum in the last eight days of the election," Chang said. "Our message of change and new ideas is resonating with the voters, and we’re focused on continuing to bring that message to as many people as possible before Aug. 9."
Anderson said he too is "still hopeful." A lack of campaign funds has stifled his ability to get out his message, and he said he is the only one of the seven Democrats who does not have a base constituency within the 1st District.
The winner of Saturday’s Democratic primary will likely face former Congressman Charles Djou, the heavily favored Republican primary front-runner, whose primary opponent is Allan Levene. The nonpartisan candidates are Calvin Griffin and Robert H. Meyer.
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