Gov’s ouster ups ante for new day

Anyone who dismisses elections as dull and fails to participate is dead wrong. Saturday’s primary election was a wild ride: Full of dizzying plunges and soaring drama — and voters are still in suspense if it’s Democratic incumbent Brian Schatz or rival Colleen Hanabusa advancing to the general election for the U.S. Senate seat.

That outcome isn’t expected for another couple of weeks: With Schatz leading by fewer than 1,700 votes but two Hawaii island precincts yet to vote due to Tropical Storm Iselle damage, it becomes clearer than ever that every single vote does count. More about that tomorrow.

For today, the huge game-changer is the historic primary election ouster of incumbent Democratic Gov. Neil Abercrombie by state Sen. David Ige, who was little known beyond state legislative circles until mere months ago.

Cash-rich but vote-poor, Abercrombie learned a rare but hard lesson: money can’t buy you love.

Many times it can, as shown repeatedly by many middling candidates with huge war chests that can afford to sell their image and brand. But in Saturday’s election, Ige bucked conventional wisdom to upset the incumbent governor — now, paired with lieutenant governor running mate Shan Tsutsui, Ige heads to a November showdown for the state’s top spot against Republican James "Duke" Aiona, running with Elwin Ahu; Independent Mufi Hannemann and partner Les Chang; and Libertarian Jeff Davis with running mate Cynthia (Lahi) Marlin.

Ige’s landslide victory — 66 percent to 31 percent — came despite a huge fundraising disparity: he raised just over $500,000 to Abercrombie’s $5 million-plus. But the senator’s steady, low-key personality won over voters who couldn’t get past the governor’s polarizing style and unfortunate knack for alienating one-time constituencies.

After 40 years of public service, Abercrombie will now exit a dramatically-changing landscape that for decades, until recently, was helmed by a few elite politicians like himself.

With exception of the still-unresolved Hanabusa-Schatz battle, all eyes and efforts now turn to the Nov. 4 general election, and it promises to be an exciting three-month period.

The recent Hawaii Poll showed that in a three-way race between Aiona, Ige and Hannemann, Aiona would win, followed by Ige. But that was last month, when these three had not even engaged head-on. Debates will play a critical role, and voters will certainly need to hear much more from each candidate on issue positions, policy details and vision for Hawaii.

Conservatism is the early catchword here. Both Aiona and Hannemann are social conservatives, so it’ll be intriguing to hear how discussions unfold on liberal topics such as universal preschool, marijuana legalization and even same-sex marriage. As Ways and Means chairman and especially in a Democratic context, Ige emerges as a fiscal conservative, so his funding agenda will be telling about his priorities.

On education, for instance, will any candidate favor the upcoming state constitutional amendment to fund a new early education model? What is the direction for the Department of Education, its Common Core learning path and more campus-based decisionmaking? How to tackle such entrenched problems as the Department of Hawaiian Homelands, the prisons system, computer and information technology overhaul, and the Hawaii Health Connector woes?

The homelessness dilemma and affordable housing shortfall also loom large. And the buildup of Kakaako, said to be a key factor in Abercrombie’s defeat, will surely whip debate.

Voters on Saturday sent a strong message of dissatisfaction in the status quo. Despite their many years of service, each gubernatorial candidate will need to work mightily over the next three months to define — redefine — himself to convince voters he can be trusted to lead the state for the next four years.

For now, only one thing is certain: Hawaii will have a new governor and new management by year’s end.