Tie-tie. Is that really the race for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District with 10 days to go before Election Day?

The new Hawaii Poll shows state Rep. Mark Takai, a Pearl City Democrat, and former U.S. Rep. Charles Djou, a Republican and former Hawaii Kai Councilman, knotted at 47 percent, with 7 percent undecided.

The survey taken by Ward Research for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser and Hawaii News Now has a margin of error of 5.2 percent.

Inside the poll of 354 voters, however, the numbers may not be that close.

First, Takai, running in his first congressional race, shows strength within the demographic "holy trinity" of AJA voters, voters 55 and older, and union households. Those groups are important as they are reliable, regular voters — so winning their support means a lot in Hawaii where few people vote.

Takai has 66 percent of the AJA vote, 49 percent of those 55 and older, and 57 percent of the union vote.

But, Djou wins over Takai among Caucasians, Filipino-Americans and Native Hawaiians. The Republican also leads by a few percentage points among poor and middle-income voters.

Finally, Takai grabs nearly 25 percent of the Democratic vote, but he has just 4 percent of the GOP vote. That difference could be because of Djou’s base of support in east Honolulu, which includes Democratic and Republican areas.

Two years ago when Djou ran against Democratic U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, the October Hawaii Poll showed Djou with 21 percent Democrat support, and Hanabusa won.

To help puzzle through the number, I asked two politicians who know the area what they think.

Hanabusa is the Democrat representing the district now. She ran for the U.S. Senate and lost to U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz, so the congressional seat was opened.

Former U.S. Rep. Pat Saiki represented Hawaii as the first GOP House member from Hawaii, from 1987 to 1991. She is now the Hawaii state GOP chairwoman.

Saiki noted that if Djou returns to the House, he will be a Republican and in the majority and can emphasize "the need for Hawaii to be represented in what is and will continue to be the decision-making majority in the Congress."

The Democrats’ political power, Hanabusa said, will be to organize and bring out voters in CD-1 for Takai.

"At this stage people probably have made up their minds. It is going to be a ‘get out the vote’ effort. I think this has been the strength of the Democrats," Hanabusa said in an email.

Saiki agreed with the tactic of getting your voters to the polls, and said Djou should do this better than Takai.

"If those who support what he (Djou) stands for — turn out to vote, he will definitely win. In my experience, voters want to support a candidate with credibility, experience and sincerity," Saiki said in an email.

Hanabusa counseled hard work.

"The way to win is to get your voters out. Your voters have got to want to vote for you. What you don’t want is for them to feel you’ll be OK and/or their vote doesn’t matter," Hanabusa said.

Democrats, especially with a hometown hero in the White House, should hold on to CD-1 — but Obama is a lame duck, the country is nervous about everything from Ebola to ISIS and the Republicans appear ready to sweep both the U.S. House and Senate, so Djou can argue "Just put one Hawaii vote in the GOP huddle."

The district is obviously in the middle. It is tie-tie, unless you pick one and vote.

Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays, Tuesdays and Fridays. Reach him at rborreca@staradvertiser.com.