Voter turnout for the November elections is expected to be low, political analysts predict, a reflection of a lack of enthusiasm for the candidates and a disengagement from politics.
Turnout in Hawaii might not reach the 55.8 percent who voted in 2010, the last gubernatorial election, and could mirror the record low of 52.7 percent in 2006.
On Oahu, 14,558 voters cast ballots through early walk-in voting that ended Saturday. Glen Takahashi, Honolulu election administrator, said that figure is down from roughly 24,000 in 2012 and 22,000 in 2010.
Early mail-in ballots showed similar trends. With some ballots still trickling in Monday, the county had received about 100,785 of the 131,230 ballots that were mailed out, Takahashi said. In 2012 about 113,500 of roughly 127,000 ballots were returned, and in 2010 about 96,000 of 104,000 mail-in ballots were returned.
Neighbor islands reported similar patterns.
Hawaii County finished with 6,441 walk-in ballots cast, down from 9,502 two years ago and 10,253 four years ago, said Pat Nakamoto, Hawaii County election administrator. Mail-in ballots were 19,177 as of Monday, compared with 22,245 in 2012 and 9,877 in 2010.
Walk-in ballots cast on Maui were 3,241, down from 4,089 and 3,691 during the past two elections, said Shirley Magirifuji, Maui County election administrator. Mail-in ballots on Maui bucked the trend, with 15,123 returned as of Monday, compared with 13,994 in 2012 and 10,497 in 2010.
And on Kauai, Lyndon Yoshioka, election administrator, said walk-in ballots cast were 3,384, slightly down from 3,885 in 2012 but up from 2,928 in 2010. Mail-in ballots cast as of Monday were 8,223, down from 8,601 in 2012 and up from 7,852 in 2010.
The early and absentee voting figures are potentially instructive because more voters have been voting by absentee ballot in recent elections.
While voters in the August primary appeared motivated to take out Gov. Neil Abercrombie, the governor’s race between state Sen. David Ige, the Democrat; former Lt. Gov. James "Duke" Aiona, the Republican; and former Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, the Hawaii Independent Party candidate, has not caught fire.
Ige’s reputation as the "quiet, competent engineer" is "great, and it could make a great governor but it doesn’t make a great candidate," said John Hart, a Hawaii Pacific University communication professor.
"Who’s running against him? Two people that we’ve seen before, and seen fairly recently," Hart added.
The urban Honolulu congressional race between state Rep. Mark Takai, the Democrat, and former U.S. Rep. Charles Djou, the Republican, is expected to be close, polls suggest, but Hart and others maintain voters are not particularly passionate about the candidates.
Political analysts have cited the dominance by Democrats for the last half-century, a lack of competitive races, and comfort with the status quo as potential reasons for voter apathy. But turnout has been low even when there have been competitive campaigns and significant issues at stake.
"The causes of voter apathy are like talking about what’s the cause of homelessness: They’re many and varied," Hart said.
In other developments before Tuesday’s vote:
» The American Comeback Committee, the super PAC tied to the Republican Governors Association, has pumped an additional $369,000 into Hawaii to help Aiona, bringing the total to $2.2 million.
Hawaii Forward, the super PAC linked to the Democratic Governors Association and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, received an additional $280,000 from the DGA to help Ige, for a total of $1.8 million.
» President Barack Obama was featured in a robocall asking potential voters to cast their ballots for Takai for Congress.
"I am asking you to support Mark Takai and the Democratic ticket this Nov. 4," Obama says in the recording. "I am counting on good voters like you to make your voice heard again this year. In an election this close, we can’t afford to give Republicans an advantage just because a handful of folks didn’t vote.
"Your vote for Mark Takai will make a real difference in helping us create jobs, guarantee equal pay for women and make college more affordable. I hope you make a plan to go vote and make your voice heard."
Obama, who won Hawaii in 2012 with 70 percent of the vote, was born in the islands and graduated from Punahou School.
» Dennis Kucinich, the former congressman from Ohio who was popular in Hawaii during his unsuccessful 2004 presidential bid, has recorded a telephone message in support of the initiative that would ban growing genetically engineered plants, also known as GMOs, in Maui County. The robocall was being released Monday night on Maui, according to the Center for Food Safety.
"This is Dennis Kucinich. I love Maui, so I’m personally paying for this call to urge you to vote ‘yes’ on the GMO moratorium," Kucinich says in the call. "In 2004, Maui Dems chose me for president. I asked Congress for safety testing on GMO products. Monsanto’s money stopped my bill.
"Now 30 countries restrict or ban GMOs. Sixty-four countries require labeling — without losing jobs. Why is Maui being told, ‘Don’t even ask questions’? Vote yes. Don’t let Monsanto turn Maui into its private GMO lab."
