First there was Iselle, the first direct hit on Hawaii by a tropical cyclone in 22 years and powerful enough to leave Puna in shambles. Then there was Hurricane Julio, which veered off to the north at the 11th hour.
If that wasn’t enough, Hurricane Ana appeared to put a bull’s-eye on Hawaii before edging dangerously up the south side of the islands in a path that left most of the state out of reach of her powerful winds but close enough to be drenched by some 36 hours of steady rain.
Mercifully, the Hawaii hurricane season is drawing to a close Nov. 30 — and it’s none too soon for a state with a depleted disaster fund and a population that showed signs of hurricane fatigue.
“It was a busy year,” said Tom Evans, acting director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. “We’re holding our breath for the end of November.”
Back in May the Central Pacific Hurricane Center predicted this hurricane season would either match or exceed the norm based on expectations of a developing El Nino with its warm waters at the equator.
Although El Nino has yet to develop, conditions in the atmosphere mimicked El Nino, Evans said. There were warmer seas, fewer tradewinds and lots of moisture in the air — conditions that allow for a greater probability of tropical storms.
What’s more, the region of high pressure that usually fans the islands with tradewinds and high-level wind shear was parked farther away, leaving weakened winds and what seemed like an inviting path for storms to meander Hawaii’s way.
Some scientists say busy hurricane seasons might not be so uncommon in the future as climate change creates warmer seas and changing weather patterns that could increase the frequency and intensity of hurricanes.
Indeed, more storms seemed to find there way to Hawaii this year. Evans said Central Pacific Hurricane Center forecasters issued more tropical storm advisories this season than any year in the last decade and probably longer.
“To have three storms with direct impacts on the islands — that’s unusual during the season,” he said.
However, this year’s number of named storms in the Central Pacific — five — wasn’t exceptional. The number falls within the range of the region’s seasonal average, which is four to five.
The season’s first storm was Wali, a tropical storm that formed in the Central Pacific but died out well clear of the islands.
That was followed by Genevieve, a storm that local forecasters had an eye on ever since it formed in the eastern Pacific on July 25. Genevieve missed Hawaii but was noteworthy for being one of the season’s longest-lived tropical cyclones in both distance and time, traveling across the Pacific for 17 days and growing into a Category 5 hurricane close to Midway Island.
Hurricane Iselle weakened into a tropical storm just before making landfall on Hawaii island Aug. 8, the first tropical storm to make a direct hit on the Big Island since 1958.
Iselle packed torrential rain, flooding and strong winds that knocked down hundreds of trees and caused widespread power outages in Puna. The storm also destroyed Hawaii island crops, causing an estimated $66 million in damage that included much of the state’s papaya crop.
After the storm, Gov. Neil Abercrombie informed federal officials the state’s $2 million Major Disaster Fund was drained and the state was still facing an estimated $13.2 million in damage and debris expenses.
With a few exceptions, the rest of the state escaped with little damage.
While the twin mountains of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa got a lot of credit for knocking the stuffing out of the storm, University of Hawaii meteorology professor Steven Businger said there was probably more to Iselle’s disintegration.
The mountains did play a role, he said, but there were a couple of other factors, too, including the fact that it crossed a sizable land mass and confronted increasing wind shear.
With Iselle’s passing, relieved residents and state officials watched as Hurricane Julio sailed off to the north.
In October, Ana showed up on the horizon, and public officials worried the frequency of hurricane warnings might cause residents to ignore orders to evacuate or stock supplies as Ana approached.
As it turns out, Ana skirted the islands but dumped enough rain to cause the Sand Island water treatment plant in Honolulu to overflow, sending about 5,000 gallons of partially treated wastewater into Honolulu Harbor.
After Ana missed Kauai, it terrorized the Northwest Hawaiian Islands. Fortunately, researchers working in the archipelago were evacuated to Midway Island by a Navy ship in advance of Iselle and Julio, said David Swatland, acting superintendent of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.
Swatland said Hurricane Ana passed near French Frigate Shoals, but if there’s any damage, authorities won’t know about it until the first NOAA ship visits the area in the spring.
There are no structures on the atoll, but there are some critters.
“It was a good time (for the hurricane) to happen because there aren’t a lot of nesting birds in summer,” he said.
For Evans and his crew at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, Ana was a lot of work. They issued advisories for 13 days as the tropical storm traveled south to north and west to east and made a U-turn around the islands before moving off to become a winter storm in the Pacific Northwest and Canada.
Ana spent more time in the Central Pacific than any other tropical storm on record, he said.
Could Hawaii possibly see another hurricane before the season ends in the next two weeks?
As a matter of fact, yes, said Evans. Hurricane Iwa passed within 25 miles of Kauai in 1982 on Nov. 23, causing more than $300 million in damage to Kauai, Niihau and Oahu.
And the fact is Hawaii is never totally free of a possible tropical storm event. The Central Pacific has experienced cyclones in every month of the year except February and May, going back to 1970, Evans said.
