The state’s visitor industry is on the path to achieving its fourth record-setting year in a row even though tourism growth will continue moderating.

That was the opinion of a panel of economists and tourism industry leaders at a 2015 Outlook and Economic Forecast hosted Thursday by the Pacific Asia Travel Association and the Travel and Tourism Research Association.

"All the economic indicators show that Hawaii’s economy is on a normal growth path and that visitor arrivals will create a new record in 2015," said Eugene Tian, chief economist for the Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism.

Tian’s forecast for 2015 assumes that the state’s gross domestic product — the broadest measure of the state’s economic activity —will rise 2.8 percent, and real personal income will grow 2.3 percent. He anticipates tourism will rise at least another 1.9 percent beyond the record-setting 8.3 million visitors who came to Hawaii in 2014. He also expects visitor spending to increase 1.4 percent over the record $14.7 billion in non-seasonally adjusted spending that was attained in 2014.

Paul Brewbaker, principal for TZ Economics, points out that this latest forecast, which anticipates that tourism will grow by 1 or 2 percent while the economy will grow by 3 percent, proves that tourism is continuing to shrink as a share of Hawaii’s economy.

"It’s growing, and we are all happy and the economy seems to be doing well, but it’s not growing like it should given what we all know about the economy," he said. "I’m kind of worried."

Brewbaker said that Hawaii’s real, or inflation-adjusted, visitor expenditures are not keeping up with visitor arrivals and that rising hotel room rates, partly due to capacity issues, have constrained spending outside of lodging.

But Tian said improving economies and airplane seat gains could boost tourism beyond the initial forecast. More tourism gains are expected for Hawaii in 2015 as the economies of the U.S., Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Germany, France, the Eurozone and Brazil continue to post improvements. Additionally, he expects air seats to grow to 11.9 million in 2015, a gain of nearly 5.8 percent over 2014.

"Given the outlook of air seats at the beginning of 2015, we may even see visitor arrivals by air increase 3 percent in 2015," he said.

While air service is dynamic, Chris Kam of the Hawaii Visitors and Convention Bureau said scheduled seats from North America and Oceania (Australia and New Zealand) are expected to take off in 2015, with gains from Japan expected in the second half of the year. Kam expects statewide air seats to grow by 5.9 percent during the first quarter of 2015, followed by gains of 9.2 percent in the second quarter, 6.1 percent in the third quarter and 4.2 percent in the fourth quarter of this year.

While Kam’s forecast was positive, he cautioned that as the dollar strengthens against major foreign currencies, the price of a Hawaii vacation will rise for international visitors, while also broadening the pool of competition for domestic visitors because overseas travel will be more affordable to them.

Even so, strong fundamentals are expected to continue in Hawaii’s hotel and visitor industry-related commercial real estate sectors. Joseph Toy, president and chief executive officer of Hospitality Advisors LLC, said according to research from his company and from STR Inc., all four major Hawaiian Islands finished 2014 with performance measures like occupancy, average daily room rate and revenue per available room in the top 25 of all U.S. markets. Toy said Hawaii’s hotel industry also set all-time highs for average daily rate (ADR), revenue per available room (revPAR), room revenue and hotel revenue in 2014 with some of the momentum expected to continue into 2015.

"In 2015 there will be continued market expansion, but moderation already is evident, including shorter booking windows and pricing push-back," Toy said.

Still, according to Toy’s latest forecast, statewide ADR in 2015 is expected to reach $256, a 5.3 percent gain from 2014. While demand and pricing gains will moderate from 2014 levels, Toy said Oahu should benefit from rooms that have been taken out of service for improvements.

"Substantial renovations are in the pipeline, and we have already reached the development tipping point for new projects," he said.