Paradise lost

"Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War"
By P.W. Singer and August Cole
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, $28

In "Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War," a new military techno-thriller by P.W. Singer and August Cole, war with China comes to Pearl Harbor the way it came with Japan: via sneak attack by a rising Asian giant that catches America napping.

The authors don’t spend time dwelling on sentimental irony: Both on Dec. 7, 1941, and just over a decade or so in the future (the year is never named), Hawaii is a strategic mid-Pacific buffer between Asia and the mainland United States. But in this account China — unlike Japan — sends troops ashore, invading Oahu and installing an occupation force.

The debut novel for Singer, a respected military strategist and consultant for the Defense Department, and Cole, a former defense industry reporter for The Wall Street Journal, is an entertaining and curious mix of military technology, evolved from current-day systems, and Tom Clancy potboiler, with bits of "Battleship" (minus the aliens) and "Red Dawn" thrown in to keep the pages turning.

With its many plausible predictions — and 400 research notes at the end of the book to support them — the 404-page novel is getting a lot of buzz inside and out of the military. Plaudits have come from the likes of retired Adm. James Stav­ri­dis, a former supreme allied commander of NATO, who is quoted on the book jacket praising Singer and Cole for their "frightening and pitch-perfect vision" of what a war between China and the U.S. could look like.

History suggests conflict between established and rising powers is inevitable. In "Ghost Fleet," China swings first, aided by some serious cyberhacking of the Pentagon and the annihilation of U.S. satellites, effectively blinding the American military to the enemy’s bold move.

The Pearl Harbor attack phase — using mines, tanks, missile fire from disguised Chinese freighters, helicopters and armed quadcopter drones — leaves at least nine Navy ships sinking and others taken over by boarding teams.

Tanks and military trucks rumble out of big "roll on, roll off" ships at Pier 29, near Sand Island, that purport to carry cars, and a KITV News chopper sent to cover what is believed to be a gas explosion at the harbor is blasted out of the sky by a drone missile.

At Honolulu Airport, Chinese troops pour out of Harmony Airways Airbus A380s. Schofield Barracks and the Marine Corps base at Kane­ohe Bay are wiped out, and China quickly gains control of another prize: U.S. Pacific Command at Camp H.M. Smith.

Those are just some of the specific local details in the novel that bring the action home. Hidden Valley Estates and California Avenue in Wahiawa become a movement route for the North Shore Mujahideen rebels heading to Ili­ahi Elementary School. Another mission takes the NSM through the north fork of Kau­kona­hua Stream.

And a church at Kawaiahao Street and Mission Lane gets blown up on the order of a buffoonish Chinese general.

Russia, which is allied with China, attacks U.S. bases in Japan. American attack submarines are targeted using space-based tracking technology. Fearful of a nuclear exchange, China leaves U.S. ballistic missile subs and the U.S. mainland untouched. Most of America’s allies crumble in the face of the sudden and overwhelming aggression; Japan negotiates a "neutrality" deal.

The title, "Ghost Fleet," is a reference to the resurrection of inactive Navy ships at the former Mare Island Naval Shipyard north of San Francisco, including the USS Zumwalt, a futuristic destroyer that is scheduled to be delivered to the Navy later this year. The "Z" and its electromagnetic rail gun are heroes of the eventual U.S. counteroffensive.

Also making a cameo as a member of the ghost fleet is the Pearl Harbor cruiser USS Port Royal, which the Navy wants to mothball in real life. The infamous ship, which ran aground off Oahu in 2009, sustaining major damage and destroying a large swath of reef, redeems itself, in the novel at least, by playing a key role in ending the war with its ability to shoot down anti-ship missiles. And in this future war, hundreds of such missiles fly through the air.

Singer and Cole’s futuristic vision of warfare includes a military heavily reliant on "stims" — stimulants that provide energy, focus, mood control and pain relief — and a device akin to a souped-up Google Glass called "viz," which provides a whole new level of information awareness. Drones are in widespread use, including wedge-shaped F-40A Shrike attack jets, shipboard firefighting robot spiders and an assassin robot lobster used by Navy SEALs.

When some of America’s latest and greatest technology proves to be susceptible to Chinese computer-chip meddling, including the uber-expensive F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, it’s a good deal of less than state-of-the-art hardware that eventually gets thrown back at the enemy.

Readers who question whether China would raise a hand to its largest trading partner will find themselves chastised by Capt. Jamie Simmons, the Zumwalt’s eventual commander and a central character in "Ghost Fleet." Before the flames of war are ignited, Simmons warns that money ties don’t necessarily bind.

"Trade is just trade," he says to another naval officer, pointing out that Germany was Britain’s biggest trading partner before World War I and that the U.S. was Japan’s before Pearl Harbor.

The novel pingpongs at frenetic pace around the globe, from the depths of the Mari­ana Trench to low Earth orbit, where the Chinese space station Tian­gong-3 harbors a satellite- killing laser. The overstuffed plot includes a global economic crash resulting from the detonation of a radioactive "dirty bomb" in Dhah­ran, Saudi Arabia, which causes the House of Saud to fall and oil prices to skyrocket to $290 a barrel. China’s corrupt Communist Party loses control and is replaced by the "Directorate" of business magnates and military leaders who pull the trigger on World War III.

Chinese Vice Adm. Wang Xiao­qian tells his country’s leaders that the U.S. "Congress threatens energy sanctions at the slightest whim," and quotes a line from fabled ancient military strategist Sun Tzu: "On terrain from which there is no way out, take the battle to the enemy."

The book skips a beat in time from the attack on Hawaii to the post-invasion phase when the islands have become a "Special Administrative Zone" garrisoned by Chinese troops. The Moana Surfrider on Wai­kiki Beach is a hangout for Chinese military personnel, and civilians are sometimes treated brutally.

Along with the "Muj" rebels, whose members include surviving American military members and a Turtle Bay golf pro, there’s an eccentric Australian biotech billionaire with creative ideas about removing the threat of China’s space-based laser, and local girl Carrie Shin, a hotel worker who takes sinister revenge on some of the Chinese occupiers after her military fiance is killed in the fighting.

With such colorful supporting characters and subplots, it’s clear Singer and Cole aren’t aiming only at the Pentagon crowd and foreign-policy wonks; they want to entertain and inform a wide range of readers. At the same time, it’s not much of a stretch to buy into their frightening scenarios.

As Singer notes in an interview with Popular Science, China is planning to have 415 ships and submarines in its navy by 2030 (the U.S. Navy now has 273).

"What will this mean for the changing balance of power in the Pacific? What is that world like?" he asks.

It’s an interesting question that splits the "panda huggers" and "dragon slayers" in the U.S. military who differ over whether China is economic friend, military foe or both.

"Ghost Fleet" falters in some of its character development and with one particularly outlandish plotline. But Singer and Cole pre­sent a clear and troubling vision of where man, machine and geopolitics can take us, making "Ghost Fleet" well worth the read.