Strong El Nino blamed for dry winter forecast

NOAA PHOTO
Tropical Depression 6E, which formed in the Eastern Pacific over the weekend, was captured in an image at 7 p.m. Sunday by the GOES-15 geostationary satellite. Hawaii is in the upper left corner of the image. Tropical cyclone activity usually increases in El Nino years such as 2015.

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Hawaii is likely to go into drought this winter, with perhaps 50 percent less rainfall than normal as a stronger-than-usual El Nino, the warming of the eastern tropical Pacific, continues into next spring.

"We’re not just talking about leeward drought," said Kevin Kodama, a hydrologist with the National Weather Service office in Honolulu. "It will probably manifest itself in windward areas as well. The expectation is that there will be pretty significant drought."

Last week the National Climate Prediction Center issued a new El Nino advisory, predicting a 90 percent chance of a significant El Nino continuing into the winter and an 80 percent chance that it will stick around through the spring.

The El Nino weather phenomenon has already helped spawn three tropical storms in the Central Pacific — Ela, Haloloa and Ione — in the past week. Two other tropical depressions formed in the East Pacific over the weekend, and forecasters expect the above-normal hurricane season to continue.

While there is a greater chance of storms during the June-through-November hurricane season, El Nino will likely steer most rain in the winter-to-spring rainy season away from the islands.

For farmers, ranchers and homeowners who like to keep their lawns green, a strong El Nino could mean cutbacks next year.

"The chance of drought goes up, the stronger the El Nino is," Kodama said.

Previous strong El Nino years — 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2009-2010, when El Nino was moderate to strong — coincided with drought conditions in Hawaii.

"That’s what we are expecting" this year, Kodama said. "We’ll get (rain) fronts moving through, but they will be weak and fast-moving."

California, which is suffering from one of its worst droughts, will benefit from El Nino. The warmer equatorial waters generally mean above-average rainfall and more strong storms there.

Meteorologist Scott Sukup of the National Weather Service in Oxnard, Calif., told the Los Angeles Times that past El Ninos have brought in excess of a dozen inches of rain to downtown L.A.: more than 20 inches in 1957-58 and 1972-73, more than 15 inches in 1965-66 and more than 25 inches in 1997-98.

"It could bring quite a bit to help the drought," he said.

Storms could, however, also cause landslides in areas recently hit by wildfires.