With the current El Nino event on pace to be among the most powerful on record, Hawaii will see no letup in the busy hurricane season, followed by a drier-than-normal winter that will worsen the state’s drought.

In addition, weather experts predict the islands will experience more episodes of big surf during the winter.

The El Nino climate pattern — triggered by a vast, expanding pool of warmer-than-normal ocean water in the tropical Pacific near the equator — has strengthened since the spring and is now considered among the most powerful ever seen, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center forecasters said Thursday.

They said the event will peak in late fall or early winter and continue into early spring, changing weather patterns around Hawaii and across the globe.

For the mainland it means a greater likelihood of lots of winter rainfall for drought-stricken California as well as heavy winter rain for the Southern and Eastern U.S., while creating drier conditions in the Midwest.

Although El Nino puts a damper on the Atlantic hurricane season, it produces the opposite effect in the Central and Eastern Pacific.

On average the Central Pacific sees anywhere from three to five named tropical cyclones during the hurricane season from June to November. With the latest storm swirling near Hawaii, Hilda, the Central Pacific has already seen five storms this season.

For Chris Brenchley, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Honolulu, news of a strengthening El Nino is confirmation that the remainder of the season will be just as active as the first 2-1/2 months. “We’ve already been seeing the effects of El Nino, and we’ll continue to see it,” he said.

Brenchley urged Hawaii residents to be wary of storms ahead. Don’t be lulled into thinking the islands will continue to dodge the hurricane bullet, he said, because the strong wind shear seemingly that has protected Hawaii so far may not necessarily be there in the coming months.

Axel Timmermann, University of Hawaii meteorology professor, said that in addition to El Nino conditions, Hawaii has been dealing with warmer temperatures caused by a vast section of warmer waters around the islands and across the northeastern Pacific.

The warming of the northeastern Pacific started back in November 2013, he said.

“It has been with us during the development of the weak El Nino events in 2014 and the rapidly growing 2015 event,” Timmermann said. “Specifically, the warm ocean surface off Hawaii — up to 3 degrees above normal — enables hurricanes to come closer to our shores.”

Timmermann said weak wind shear might further fuel hurricane development in the eastern tropical Pacific in the months ahead.

“Residents in Hawaii can expect a very active hurricane season,” he said.

History indicates that El Nino years can bring trouble, according to state climatologist Pao-Shin Chu. Hurricane Iwa in 1982 and Hurricane Iniki in 1992 struck during El Nino years, and other El Nino years brought multiple hurricanes to the Central Pacific.

After the hurricane season is over in November, Brenchley said, look for El Nino to result in below-average rainfall in the winter, normally Hawaii’s wet season.

All of the islands currently have regions considered abnormally dry, according to the state’s Hawaii Drought Monitor. Two islands, Kauai and Maui, have leeward regions identified with severe drought.

Those conditions are expected to only worsen this winter to create parched landscapes vulnerable to wildfire, officials said.

As for the surf, Pat Caldwell, liaison with the NOAA Data Centers in Honolulu, said the upcoming winter could be epic for surfers and big-wave surfing events, with lots of sizable swells from the northwest and not a lot of severe weather to help cut them down to size.

On the other hand, he said, monster waves on the North Shore could create more shoreline erosion, so oceanfront property owners should be wary.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters said there is a greater than 90 percent chance that El Nino will continue through the winter and about an 85 percent chance it will last into early spring .

They also said, however, that while anomalous impacts are likely during El Nino, they are not certain to occur. But the stronger the El Nino, they said, the more likely the impacts become.