Iniki. Iwa. Dot.
These destructive hurricanes all came from a southerly direction, turned north and made a direct hit on Kauai and affected other islands as well.
Could Kilo be next to do the same?
Tropical Depression 3-C, coming from the south, was forecast to develop into Tropical Storm Kilo by early Friday morning and to become a hurricane as early as Saturday morning.
“We can be hit from almost any direction in Hawaii,” said Tom Evans, acting director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, noting Iselle and Flossie came from the east and hit the Big Island. “The ones that have hit the islands the strongest came from a southerly direction.”
Kilo could hit Kauai and Niihau by 8 a.m. Tuesday, or it could go more toward Oahu or French Frigate Shoals, an atoll in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands, said Evans.
The path Kilo is expected to take, mapped out on the hurricane center’s website Thursday, shows the hurricane taking a northwesterly path, then hooking a right to the east, taking aim at Kauai and Niihau.
Saturday into Sunday is when Kilo could take a more northerly turn, eventually heading northeast.
The system was 645 miles south-southeast of Hilo at 5 p.m. Thursday, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, and trekking west- northwest toward the islands from the south at 16 mph.
“What’s driving the movement of this tropical depression is the high pressure to the northeast,” Evans said. “If the high pressure stays stronger longer than expected, the turn will occur more to the west. If it weakens faster than expected, then the turn will be sooner than we have in the forecast.”
ON THURSDAY, Evans said there is a “large cone of uncertainty associated with the storm; especially five days out there’s going to be high uncertainty.”
The National Weather Service had been keeping an eye on the system for several days, and “it popped out of a monsoon trough,” which is an area near the equator where winds converge, Evans said.
What determines strength is water temperature, wind shear and moisture, he said. “All three are present.”
Tradewinds returned Thursday night, but moisture from 3-C’s periphery could bring more showers and humidity over the weekend, the weather service said.
Hawaiian Electric Co. asked customers to conserve electricity Thursday evening because of record-high use Wednesday, likely due to air conditioning use spurred by hot, muggy weather. Spokeswoman Teri Theuriet said, “So far, conservation efforts have been working.”