Robust tourism, a strengthening labor market and a construction sector that appears poised to break out all point to a promising 2016 for Maui, a local economist told business leaders Thursday at the 41st annual First Hawaiian Bank Economic Outlook Forum.

"The importance of tourism to Maui County’s economy cannot be overstated," Jack Suyderhoud said in an invitation-only event at the Maui Beach Hotel. "Compared to the state as a whole, Maui is almost three times as reliant on tourism."

Suyderhoud said one of the primary reasons for the optimistic outlook is Maui’s increase in air seats, which jumped 19.4 percent to Kahului during the first half of this year compared with the year-earlier period. That marked the second-largest gain among major neighbor island airports next to Kona (21.1 percent), according to Hawaii Tourism Authority data.

U.S. visitors to Maui account for 72 percent of all arrivals, but Suyderhoud said if the U.S. government works out a pre-clearance arrangement for visitors traveling from Narita and other Japanese airports, direct service from these markets to Maui will become more likely. In 2014, despite a 24 percent decline from Japan, visitor arrivals to Maui topped 2 million, the highest total since 2.2 million arrivals in 2007.

"At some point the capacity of Kahului Airport will become an issue," said Suyderhoud, a professor of business economics at the Shidler School of Business at the University of Hawaii at Manoa. "Already plans are being made for adding two jetways at the commuter end of the building."

Another silver lining is the recovering Maui County labor market, which since 2010 has added nearly 9,000 jobs, with most of those in the restaurant and lodging sectors. Total jobs in the county have increased to within 1,300 of the pre-recession peak.

In addition, Maui’s unemployment rate, which was well above the statewide average in 2009, has declined even faster than that of the state and is now equal to the state average of about 4 percent, he said.

"Thanks to vibrant tourism, the county’s labor market is strong, almost to the point of not being able to keep up with demand for workers," Suyderhoud said.

Suyderhoud said the long-awaited resurgence in the construction sector has not occurred broadly thus far, but "there are glimmers of hope."

"Construction, which has been bolstered by public infrastructure, seems ready to break out as greater commercial construction leads into more residential building activity … which has been moribund for the better part of six years," he said.

Only about 1,100 construction jobs have been added since the 2010 trough, and total construction jobs remain 1,800 below the pre-recession peak, but he said recently there has been an uptick in the value of permits. In 2009, total private permits averaged less than $20 million per month, but by 2014 the value of the permits had increased to nearly $37 million a month.

"In 2015 all categories of private permits are up significantly, foreshadowing accelerating construction into 2016," he said.

Maui County’s effort to improve infrastructure is continuing with a focus on roads, parks, wastewater treatment and consolidation of the county base yards. The county purchased 4.1 acres in the Maui Business Park to consolidate services and get out from under lease costs. State construction includes the new airport access road and a $340 million airport car rental facility.

The real estate market continues to strengthen, he said, but condominium prices could soften this year.

"While 2015 is expected to be a good year for the single-family market, there are concerns that the condominium market will soften due to declining demand from Canadian buyers whose purchasing power is being eroded by the strong U.S. dollar," Suyderhoud said.

Despite the rosy forecast, Suyderhoud said question marks remain.

Maui Memorial Medical Center, the second-largest employer in the county, has been plagued by financial problems but could get a reprieve through privatization that would provide stability, expansion of services and even job growth.

"The Maui community as a whole needs a reliable modern medical infrastructure," he said. "Without it Maui becomes a much less attractive place to live and invest."

He also said the agricultural industry is facing some challenges. Wet weather kept HC&S’s sugar yield at 172,000 tons last year, below the target of 190,000, and above-normal rain will keep 2015 below the goal, he said. Seed companies, meanwhile, were successful in fighting off restrictive legislation at the state level, but the outcome of county-level initiatives is in the hands of the courts.

Finally, Suyderhoud said the $340 million Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope project has a 2019 completion date and is half completed, but uncertainty hovers around this project in the form of two pending state Supreme Court cases.

Maui County’s two smaller islands, Lanai and Molokai, have different issues.

Tourism has dried up on Lanai amid the renovation of the Manele Bay Resort, which closed June 1 to facilitate common area improvements, including the pool. Manele is expected to open in January.

"The strategy is to develop a low-density, high-dollar visitor experience using the Four Seasons brand," said Suyderhoud, adding that the room count at Manele will be reduced to 217 from 248 when it reopens.

To renovate Manele, the other prime resort, The Lodge at Koele, was shut down in January to house construction workers involved with the work at Manele. The Koele resort is expected to open early next year.

And Molokai "remains a fragile and vulnerable economy," Suyderhoud added.

He said 120 jobs were lost when Molokai Ranch shut down, and if the seed corn companies are driven out by regulatory pressures, 300 more jobs would be eliminated.

"The island has embarked on a 10-year community plan aiming to identify sustainable operations that leverage its special features," Suyderhoud said.