Region on track to break tropical cyclone record

Another one?

Forecasters at the National Weather Service say a tropical disturbance south of the state could develop into a record-setting 12th tropical cyclone by the end of the weekend.

As of 8 p.m. Friday, the storm system was about 600 miles south-southeast of the Big Island. Forecasters said the system has nearly a 100 percent chance of strengthening into a tropical depression. That could happen overnight, forecasters said.

Satellite images showed high clouds associated with the low-pressure system moving over the Big Island on Friday.

Models indicate the system moving slowly to the north-northwest until Monday and then curving sharply toward the east Tuesday, putting the system on a northeasterly path toward the state.

Conditions are expected to worsen Saturday evening and Sunday, with heavy showers and possible thunderstorms over the Big Island and Maui.

The wet weather is expected to continue for several days.

“There’s still a lot of question marks,” said Matt Foster, a meteorologist with the Honolulu office of the National Weather Service.

The system is expected to move northeast and pass east of the Big Island on Wednesday night or Thursday. But there are a lot of variables, and it’s not clear how strong or what its exact path will be.

“It’s certainly within the realm of possibility that it could hit the Big Island or Maui,” Foster said.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center is watching another area of low pressure that has a 70 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next two days. That system is about 1,075 miles southwest of Honolulu but is expected to move away from the islands and should not affect the weather in the main islands.

If one of the systems in the Central Pacific reaches tropical storm strength, it will be given the Hawaiian name of Oho, which means hair of the head, leaves of plants or fronds of ferns, according to the Hawaiian Dictionary compiled by Mary Pukui and Samuel Elbert. “Oho” can also be translated as “to sprout.”

If both systems intensify into tropical storms, the second system to develop will be named Pali (cliff).

In the Eastern Pacific a low-pressure system about 1,250 miles southwest of Baja California has a 30 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next five days. It’s too soon to say whether it will have any effect on Hawaii’s weather, forecasters said.

So far this hurricane season, which began June 1 and ends Nov. 30, the Central Pacific has seen a record-tying 11 tropical cyclones. The record was set in 1992 and previously matched in 1994.

Meanwhile, breezy tradewinds generated by a high-pressure system to the north of the state are expected to produce wet conditions over Kauai and Oahu, and likely Molokai, through the start of the coming week.

On Friday the weather service briefed the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency, along with federal, state and local emergency management partners, regarding the potential impacts from the different systems converging on the state.

A high-surf advisory is in effect for north- and east-facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and Hawaii island until 6 a.m. Sunday due to a large north-northeastern swell.

Surf along north-facing shores is expected to reach 15 to 20 feet Saturday. East-facing shores could see surf of 6 to 10 feet.

Beachgoers are advised to expect strong breaking waves, shorebreak and strong long-shore and rip currents that could make swimming difficult and dangerous.

The swell also prompted the weather service to issue a marine weather warning for the windward waters of Hawaii island and Maui.

The state warned that the swell would produce moderate harbor surges and large breaking waves at north-facing harbor entrances starting Friday evening.

The weather service also issued a small-craft advisory effective until 6 a.m. Sunday for all Hawaii waters due to sturdy wind and rough seas.

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Star-Advertiser reporter Craig Gima contributed to this story.