In a new age of advanced analytics in sports, “win probability” has become a popular statistic.

Without knowing the formula behind it and only knowing the history of the New Mexico State football team, its win probability against Idaho last Saturday at times had to be close to zero.

It wasn’t just the fact that the Aggies gave up the first 20 points against the Vandals, trailed 30-7 in the third quarter, fell behind 40-21 early in the fourth and even gave up a touchdown to fall behind 14 with 5:09 remaining.

This was a team that had lost 17 straight games and was second on ESPN.com’s list of the bottom 10 teams in college football.

What would make them think they could come back from those deficits and get their first win since Sept. 6, 2014 against Georgia State?

“A change in mind-set,” NMSU senior offensive lineman Houston Clemente said.

Clemente, a redshirt senior who graduated from Saint Louis School, said it began in practice last week when coach Doug Martin implored his team to change what they’ve been doing.

The third-year head coach had seen far too many disappointing results and needed to change something during the week leading up to the Idaho game.

The Aggies also needed to change their style of play late in the game with NMSU down 14. Clemente said the team decided to go no-huddle on offense, and it allowed the comeback to happen, resulting in a 55-48 overtime win.

“That really pushed the tempo and the defense was getting real tired,” Clemente said of abandoning a huddle. “You could really tell a difference. I think it helped us out a lot, especially the offensive line capitalizing on every single possession.”

The Aggies scored two consecutive touchdowns in regulation to tie it and then began overtime with a touchdown run.

Idaho got the ball down seven with a chance to tie when NMSU freshman Terrill Hanks intercepted a pass, securing the ball with his feet, to end the 17-game losing skid.

“I took a knee and I started crying,” Clemente said. “It’s been rough this year, and to come off with a victory like that …”

Clemente’s voice trailed off. Even three days after the win, it’s still almost surreal. The 6-foot-4 316-pounder, who has started all but one game in the past two years, has gone through so much in such a little time.

Not only have the loses made things tough, but Clemente is on his seventh different offensive line coach in five seasons.

One coach came and left in the span of one spring ball period and another came in during the summer and had to leave within a few weeks because of a medical condition.

“What makes it tough is each different coach has their own coaching style,” Clemente said. “Technique-wise, getting used to different terms, and figuring all of that out over and over is difficult.”

Clemente also has seen up close how easily football can be taken away.

Defensive back Kawe Johnson, one of three players from Hawaii on the Aggies, suffered a scary neck injury in the second game of the season against Georgia State.

Johnson, who won back-to-back state titles at Kahuku, hasn’t played since and will miss the rest of the season, but Clemente said he’s hopeful to play again.

“It was pretty bad, a bad stinger, and I know he’s sitting out for the season, but he’s good right now,” Clemente said.

Clemente won a state title himself, blocking for Marcus Mariota as part of Saint Louis’ title team in 2010.

Kahuku and Saint Louis are the two seeded teams in the 2015 First Hawaiian Bank/HHSAA Football State Championships beginning this week and the trash talk already has started.

“We’re always talking smack, plus Kalei Auelua (Saint Louis ’12) is here too, so me and him always try to talk smack to Kawe,” Clemente said. “The old rivalry is there.”

Clemente chose New Mexico State over UNLV and has no regrets despite the challenges. There was always the option of coming back to Hawaii, but if there’s one lesson Clemente wishes to pass on to future college football prospects, it’s this:

“Home will always be home,” Clemente said. “When you have the opportunity (to play college football), take it. Take advantage of it. You can only do it once, and Hawaii will always be there.”

AROUND THE NATION

Sugiura honored for historic win

Multnomah University, a small school in Oregon that fielded a men’s soccer team for the first time in 2014, won its first game on Oct. 23 when senior Micah Sugiura scored the only goal in the 64th minute of a 1-0 victory over Walla Walla (Wash.) University.

Sugiura was recognized last week as the Cascade Collegiate Conference player of the week for his efforts.

The victory was the first in conference play for any sport at Multnomah University, which joined the NAIA and the CCC on Aug. 1.

Sugiura, who graduated from Christian Academy in 2012, is the Lions’ only senior and leads the team with two goals this season.

Matas named PacWest defender of the week

Notre Dame de Namur senior Tyler Matas was named the Pacific West Conference defender of the week on Monday.

Matas helped the Argos post consecutive shutouts and set a conference record with four assists in a single game.

Matas did it against Holy Names in a 7-0 victory on Saturday, which is an NCAA Division II season high this year.

Argos senior Jack Ewert (Pacific Buddhist Academy ’12) had a goal and an assist against the Hawks, while freshman Naia Graham (Kailua ’15) scored a goal and Chandler Alo (KS-Maui ’14) assisted on another.

Murphy leads Buffs to cross country title

Colorado senior Pierce Murphy, a 2011 graduate of Island School on Kauai, recorded his highest career finish in the Pac-12 Cross Country Championships on Friday, finishing fourth with a time of 23 minutes, 15.1 seconds to lead the Buffaloes to their fifth straight Pac-12 title.

Murphy led the Buffs in a cross country meet for the third straight event.

“This year we knew we needed Pierce to take a step up,” Colorado coach Mark Wetmore said in a press release. “He was 35th at nationals last year as our fourth or fifth runner. It looks like he has taken that step up this year.”

Football

» DeForest Buckner, Punahou ’12: The Oregon defensive lineman made eight tackles with two for a loss and a sack in a 61-55 triple overtime win over Arizona State last Thursday.

» Hercules Mata’afa, Lahainaluna ’14: The Washington State defensive lineman made four tackles with one for a loss in a 28-27 loss to Stanford on Saturday.

» Psalm Wooching, Kealakehe ’12: The Washington linebacker assisted on a tackle and returned a fumble 41 yards in the Huskies’ 49-3 victory over Arizona on Saturday.

» Saneilia Fuimaono, Punahou ’10: The Arizona defensive lineman assisted on three tackles with one for a loss against Washington.

» Peni Vea, Kealakehe ’11: The UNLV safety made eight tackles with one for a loss in a 55-27 loss to Boise State on Saturday.

» Tau Lotulelei, Maui ’12: The UNLV linebacker made six tackles against the Broncos.

» Kamu Grugier-Hill, Kamehameha ’12: The Eastern Illinois linebacker made five tackles with two sacks and recovered a fumble in a 34-20 win over Murray State on Saturday.

» Luke Morris, Punahou ’14: The Georgetown receiver had six receptions for 76 yards, including a 19-yard touchdown catch in a 33-28 loss to Lehigh on Saturday.

» Russell Siavii, Leilehua ’12: The Idaho defensive back made five tackles in a 55-48 overtime loss to New Mexico State on Saturday.

» Jarin Morikawa, Mililani ’13: The Jackson State quarterback went 3-for-6 for 30 yards before getting knocked out of the game on the second drive with a head injury in a 26-16 win over Mississippi Valley on Saturday.

» Trey Shimabukuro, Kauai ’11: The Western Oregon quarterback came off the bench to throw a 16-yard touchdown pass in a 17-14 win over Azusa Pacific on Saturday.

» Jesse Correa, Saint Louis ’12: The Western Oregon kicker made both extra points and booted a 21-yard field goal that was the difference in the win over Azusa Pacific.

» Reece Foy, ‘Iolani ’12: The Amherst (Mass.) quarterback was 18-for-27 for 170 yards and scored on a 1-yard TD run in a 32-7 win over Tufts on Saturday.

» Tristin Kamaka, Leilehua ’14: The Midland (Neb.) University sophomore finished with 98 all-purpose yards in a 15-7 loss to Hastings on Saturday.

Women’s Golf

» Brittany Fan, Kamehameha ’14: The Colorado sophomore finished in a tie for 12th place at 3-over 222 after three rounds of the Pac-12 Preview that ended Tuesday in Kona. Fan closed Tuesday with a 1-under 71, making two birdies and a bogey, to finish with her best 54-hole performance of the fall season and her fourth top-15 finish in her career.

» Nani Yanagi, Waiakea ’12: The Washington State senior finished the Pac-12 Preview in a tie for 39th at 14 over.

Women’s Volleyball

» Carly Kan, Punahou ’13: The Missouri outside hitter had 14 digs, 13 kills, two aces and two blocks in a five-set win over Auburn on Sunday and had 16 kills, 10 digs, two solo blocks and three block assists in a five-set victory over Alabama last Wednesday.

» Brittney Markwith, Punahou ’13: The Portland junior middle had 10 kills and six block assists in a five-set win over San Francisco on Thursday and finished with nine block assists, seven kills and two digs in a five-set win over Santa Clara on Saturday.

» Lexis Satele, St. Francis ’13: The New Mexico Highlands junior had a team-high 21 digs, seven assists and an ace in a four-set loss to Colorado Christian on Friday and added six digs, an assists and an ace in a three-set loss to Colorado School of Mines on Saturday.

» Maria Leineweber, Sacred Hearts ’13: The College of Mount Saint Vincent junior outside hitter hit .471 with 10 kills, four digs and two block assists in a sweep of Maritime College on Saturday. It was the 10th straight victory for the Dolphins, who clinched the No. 1 seed in the Skyline championship tournament.

» Leeta Grap, Hawaii Prep ’12: The Western New Mexico senior hit .440 with a match-high 13 kills, four digs, two aces and a block in a sweep of Colorado Christian on Saturday.

» Ashley Mataele, Kahuku ’14: The Western New Mexico sophomore had a team-high 12 digs and an assist against Colorado Christian.

» Chyler Imai, Kohala ’12: The Western New Mexico setter had 17 assists, four digs and two aces against Colorado Christian.

» Kaydee Yukawa, Roosevelt ’12: The Northwestern Oklahoma State senior setter had 26 assists, 17 digs and an ace in a four-set victory over Southern Nazarene on Thursday.

Women’s Wrestling

» Maria Phanthadara, Roosevelt ’14: The University of Cumberlands (Ky.) sophomore went 6-2 in the Cliff Keen Duals in Oklahoma City, Okla., winning three times by pinfall and twice by technical fall at 101 pounds.

Compiled by the Star-Advertiser’s Billy Hull. To submit an athlete for publication, email bhull@staradvertiser.com.