A scientist is warning that without continued funding, the state’s best vog forecasting map could go away, leaving residents to analyze for themselves where vog will be.

Since 2010 University of Hawaii-Manoa professor Steven Businger has run the vog predictor map online at weather.hawaii.edu, which shows where vog will be in Hawaii two days in advance.

Before he launched the map, known as the Vog Measurement and Prediction project, or VMAP, there were no forecasts for people concerned about vog, or volcanic smog, which contains sulfur dioxide gas and particles that can irritate eyes and lungs.

Besides VMAP, the state Health Department reports whether it will be hazy, but that includes salt in the air or smoke from fires, and the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reports sulfur dioxide emission rates, but that information alone is not enough to know where the vog is heading.

On the VMAP website an animated map shows the projected path of vog particles as they are carried away from Kilauea Volcano by the wind.

“The location of the plume as modeled is a good indication of whether or not there’s going to be vog,” Businger said Sunday. “It gives people a heads-up whether the vog plume is going to come over and also when the vog plume is leaving.”

He said the project, originally funded by the federal law known as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, has been unfunded for about 18 months and has been operating with resources from other grants. Businger, who has contacted multiple federal agencies and the state in hopes of finding regular funding, said without continuous funding the project, which costs about $150,000 a year, could end.

“Without funding it’s quite possible that the whole thing could disappear,” he said. “With luck we might be able to scrape by for a couple more years, and then after that we don’t have any funding.”

In a paper published last month in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Businger and his co-authors said an analysis of his vog predictor has shown that it is fairly accurate and that it is possible to provide a forecast “that can help mitigate the effects of volcanic pollution for Hawaii residents.”

Using the model’s results, researchers found VMAP accurately predicted air quality index levels at four sites on the Big Island more than 70 percent of the time, the paper says. Scientists hope to make the model more accurate by accounting for the breakdown of sulfur dioxide gas in the atmosphere, water vapor and plume height.

According to the paper, National Weather Service forecasters have used the model to advise residents when vog will be present over Honolulu.

Businger said he has received numerous inquiries from residents about vog conditions because of his model.

“It’s proven to be useful to people who suffer from allergies to vog,” he said. “They claim that it helps them plan their day.”