This year was a good one for Oahu shoppers who found many new stores to visit when Ala Moana Center recently opened most of a new wing at its mall. But next year there should be even more new retail space for shops and restaurants added to the market, a new report forecasts.
Commercial real estate firm Colliers International projects that at least 625,000 square feet of new retail space should open in 2016 at five projects, including the remainder of Ala Moana’s new Ewa wing.
The company said it’s a good time for retailers who have been frustrated by Oahu’s limited inventory of available retail space in recent years.
“For retail tenants that had faced tight market conditions and difficulty finding new locations, this is a rainstorm after a long drought,” the report said.
Despite the increase in retail space available for rent, average base rental rates offered by landlords rose 5.5 percent this year to $3.84 per square foot per month from $3.64 last year, Colliers said.
Among the coming retail space is 254,000 square feet of outlet shop space being added to Kapolei Commons, 80,000 square feet in Kakaako within the SALT project by Kamehameha Schools, about 35,000 square feet at a project called Nanakuli Village Center and 8,000 square feet at a project in Waipio called Crossroads Hawaii.
Ala Moana’s Ewa Wing is about 650,000 square feet, of which Colliers said roughly 400,000 square feet was filled this year. Another 250,000 remains unfinished or empty and is expected to result in more stores opening at the mall next year, the company added.
Colliers calculates vacancy rates to give an indication of how healthy the retail real estate market is. But the new report notes that figures this year are skewed by some of the new space that was recently added but has yet to be filled.
The firm said 461,436 square feet of retail space was filled on Oahu this year. But because about a third of Ala Moana’s new 650,000- square-foot wing hasn’t been filled with tenants yet, the vacancy rate rose to 5.1 percent from 4.1 percent at the end of last year.
This year’s 5.1 percent vacancy rate represents 831,131 square feet of vacant space out of about 16.4 million square feet of space. Last year there was 642,717 square feet vacant out of 15.7 million square feet.
Oahu’s vacancy rate hasn’t been above 5 percent in the last decade. Colliers said it expects the vacancy rate to rise to 7 percent by the end of next year, which would still be below the national average of 10 percent.
“The outlook for 2016 is decidedly positive as this surge in development activity will create an exciting retail environment and introduce new brands and concepts to Hawaii.”