Whatever surprises 2016 may hold for Hawaii, homelessness, Honolulu’s rail project and the upcoming election appear certain to dominate the local news in the year ahead.

Homelessness

Last year closed with Gov. David Ige renewing his emergency proclamation to help cope with homelessness in Hawaii, a politically charged issue Oahu voters surveyed in the 2015 Hawaii Poll said was among their top concerns. The proclamation is designed to speed up solutions to homelessness in 2016, such as a plan for up to six housing projects around Oahu being considered by Honolulu officials.

Hawaii has the highest homelessness rate per capita of any state, with an estimated 7,620 people living on the streets and in shelters. By some estimates the state needs about 28,000 new housing units immediately, with low-income residents making up two-thirds of that demand.

State lawmakers also predict homelessness will dominate their discussions during the legislative session that begins Jan. 20, and providing money to help cope with homelessness was a major part of the proposed budget Ige submitted last month.

Ige proposed $140 million in new spending on programs designed to upgrade public housing and to finance new affordable units.

That includes $75 million for the Rental Housing Revolving Fund to provide low-interest loans or grants to developers of affordable housing units, and $25 million for the Dwelling Unit Revolving Fund to provide construction financing for affordable-housing projects. The funding is expected to create 1,400 housing units.

Ige is also seeking money for homeless outreach and rapid housing programs. In addition, he wants money and staff to create full-time crews to regularly clear homeless encampments on state lands, which is a more controversial proposal among advocates for the homeless.

The city has also directed more than $100 million toward various homeless initiatives in the form of housing vouchers and new transitional facilities being established or planned for Sand Island, Iwilei, Waianae and elsewhere.

City plans call for moving the homeless into shelters and then into temporary housing such as the Sand Island project that will house 80 to 90 people in converted shipping containers. From there the plan is to channel them into longer-term housing.

Rail

Honolulu will get a first glimpse of the multibillion-dollar train actually rolling down the elevated tracks of the West Oahu guideway in the first planned tests of the rail operating system.

The first four-car train is scheduled for delivery to Honolulu late in the first quarter of 2016, and Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation officials plan to put the vehicles to work by testing operating components on the first completed segments of guideway and track.

The Honolulu City Council in January is expected to finally decide whether to approve a five-year extension of the half-percent excise tax surcharge that provides most of the money for the 20-mile, $6.57 billion rail project.

This year might also be a peak year for rail construction and rail-related traffic congestion. Work on the Farrington Highway segment of the elevated guideway should be wrapping up by midyear, but rail utility work is expected to begin in the City Center portion of the project sometime after the summer.

That means various types of rail work may be underway along the Kamehameha Highway median, in the Honolulu Airport segment of the project and in the City Center at the same time during the second half of the year.

Rail officials say they have learned from experiences during rail construction in West Oahu, and have been reaching out to the affected communities and businesses to find ways to ease the impact of construction.

Election and politics

The continuing and sometimes bitter debates over both rail and homelessness will surely be reflected in the 2016 elections, particularly in Mayor Kirk Caldwell’s bid for a second term in the executive offices of Honolulu Hale. Depending on who jumps into the race, that may be the most attention-grabbing political contest of the year.

Caldwell starts 2016 in a strong position as an incumbent with $1.479 million in campaign cash on hand at the end of June for his re-election effort.

It isn’t clear yet who will oppose Caldwell, but possible candidates include Honolulu City Council Chairman Ernie Martin, former Lt. Gov. James “Duke” Aiona and former Honolulu Mayor Peter Carlisle.

Martin, a Democrat, has said he wants to be mayor someday, but hasn’t yet publicly declared his intentions. Aiona, a Republican, says people have asked him to run for mayor, but he hasn’t committed to doing so. Carlisle, a Republican, says he’s still weighing his options. The mayor’s race is nonpartisan, but party affiliation still plays a role.

All of the candidates have supported rail except for Aiona, who has opposed it because of the cost. If Aiona becomes an anti-rail candidate, that could add an entirely new dynamic to the race by making the election all about rail. The mayor’s race also could evolve into a referendum on Caldwell’s handling of the homeless issue.

Also up for re-election is Democratic U.S. Sen. Brian Schatz. The two-year terms for Democratic U.S. Reps. Tulsi Gabbard (who represents rural Oahu and the neighbor islands) and Mark Takai (who represents urban Oahu) are up as well.