At the start of the year we try to summarize where we think things are going in the tech world. So what do I think readers should know about for 2016?
A big trend that I see continuing is that personal computers are diminishing in importance, and eventually, disappearing from the scene.
How can this be?
Phones are getting bigger and tablets, with keyboards, are replacing both tablets and laptops. That’s been picking up speed for a while. The logical question would be how can tablets or phones take the place of computers if there’s no hard drive to store files on either of these devices?
The answer is that the cloud is consuming everything, including your desktop. Larger organizations have been virtualizing desktops for some years now. By connecting your cloud storage with your virtual desktop linked to all of your software, the complicated, expensive hardware pieces we have all struggled with are removed.
Several years of evolution in mobile devices has made it clear that you don’t need anything more powerful than your phone. That’s the reason for the decline of the tablet that was brand new just a few years ago. (This assumes, of course, that you are not still using your 10-year-old flip phone.) All you need essentially are devices that allow you to see, type, touch or speak.
The hardware to process all that stuff has moved to the cloud.
The move to virtualized desktops has completely disconnected the image of the desktop from any one piece of hardware. That’s the easiest way to understand virtualization.
First prediction: By the end of 2016 you will be seriously considering subscribing to a cloud desktop with cloud storage and a set of cloud applications. This is one of those things that cannot be explained until you make the change. The proof is what happens when people make the change. They never look back. The big chunk of computing hardware that scared them is off their backs.
Most everything in the new model means that you pay for software and computing power via subscription to application suites such as Microsoft Office, which formerly you would buy as “programs.” Some people may be put off with the subscription model, but the big advantage is that you can buy the minimum of what you need with more capacity available on demand when you need it. Casual users and small businesses will be unhappy with this as these are the people who have never really understood the costs of unmanaged and unsupported information systems.
If your information is used for business you need to make sure it is safe and backed up. The cloud services take care of this by copying your information across different locations. Knowing that is a lot more comforting than trying to remember the last time you ran a backup.
So what goes away? Desktop PCs with big storage drives go away. Tablets with keyboards and the newest smartphones connecting wirelessly to LCD displays plus printers are all you need. These link to cloud-based applications, Microsoft Office 365 or Google Drive and Apps, or more limited storage at Dropbox will keep your data and provide it to you everywhere.
If you currently have an Android Lollipop or Marshmallow (5.x or 6.0) phone, you know how easy it is to type messages and notes using the swipe keyboard. And all cloud-based services automatically adjust to the size and type of device you are using. This is all much, much easier to use and much less to worry about than anything in the history of personal computing.
Second prediction: Once you make the change you’ll start wondering why people are still arguing about operating systems. And oh yes, that flip phone will be gone.
Mike Meyer, formerly Internet general manager at Oceanic Time Warner Cable, is now chief information officer at Honolulu Community College. Reach him at mmeyer@hawaii.edu.
