By Richard C. Paddock

New York Times

MANILA >> Rodrigo Duterte, poised to be the Philippines’ next president, has signaled that he will try a new approach toward China by emphasizing economic ties.

During the campaign, he talked tough about China’s activities in the South China Sea, saying he would ride a Jet Ski to the contested Spratly Islands and plant the Philippine flag there. Yet he also said he would seek Beijing’s help in building a rail line that would link Manila to the southern island of Mindanao, where he served as mayor of Davao City for nearly two decades.

He even proclaimed he would “shut up” about the South China Sea if China built the railway.

“Development rather than deterrence — that is going to be doctrine on the South China Sea,” said Richard Javad Heydarian, a political science professor at De La Salle University in Manila. “The Jet Ski, planting the flag, that is Duterte the entertainer. But you will see the contemplative president developing foreign policy.”

Though the bombastic Duterte has yet to assume the role, some analysts say his unpredictability will help him negotiate with foreign powers. At the same time, they expect him to maintain a close relationship with the United States, which has strong military ties with the Philippines.

With 96 percent of the votes from Monday’s election counted on Wednesday, Duterte led with 38.5 percent, far ahead of his rivals. In the Philippine system, only a plurality is required to win.

Though there are no official results yet, President Benigno S. Aquino III congratulated Duterte on his victory and pledged to cooperate in the transfer of power. He said his administration had formed a transition team to work with Duterte’s staff.

“We are committed to effecting the smoothest transition possible,” Aquino said.

Duterte, who would be the first mayor and the first official from impoverished Mindanao to win the presidency, faces formidable challenges in governing the island nation of 100 million people. Despite recent economic growth, a quarter of the nation lives in poverty.

He promised during the campaign to lead a ruthless battle against crime. His first priority will be keeping that pledge, analysts say. “I will become a dictator against all bad guys,” he told reporters Monday.

Another pressing issue is China’s expansion in the South China Sea, where it has built islands and military bases in the areas claimed by the Philippines and other Southeast Asian nations.

Under Aquino, the Philippines challenged China’s claims in a U.N. arbitration court. A decision is expected before Duterte takes office on June 30, and experts say the Philippines is likely to prevail. However, China has refused to participate in the case, and the court has no enforcement mechanism.

Duterte is likely to use a decision in the Philippines’ favor as leverage to win concessions from China, particularly investment in infrastructure, like the rail line to Mindanao, analysts say.

“He will talk to China, not like President Aquino,” said Ramon Casiple, executive director of the Institute for Political and Electoral Reform, a nonprofit organization promoting democracy. “He is willing to explore other realms of relations, economic cooperation and joint development.”

Beijing views relations with the Philippines to be at a low and sees room for improvement, an editorial in the state-run Global Times said this week.

“China will not be too naive to believe that a new president will bring a promising solution to the South China Sea disputes between Beijing and Manila,” the editorial said. “Only time will tell how far the new leader, be it Duterte or not, will go toward restoring the bilateral relationship.”

Filipinos overwhelmingly favor close ties to the United States, which once governed the islands as a territory, and many are suspicious of China and its intentions in the South China Sea.

The United States and the Philippines have a mutual defense pact. In addition, in Mindanao the United States is helping to combat Abu Sayyaf, a gang of kidnappers that has pledged allegiance to the Islamic State.

Clarita Carlos, a retired political science professor at the University of the Philippines, said that with those realities she expects Duterte to find a middle course between the United States and China, which both have significant trade with the Philippines.

“People say it’s the U.S. versus China,” she said. “But they are both our friends. China is also dependent on us. Let them learn the lesson that cooperation is the name of the game.”

She also expects Duterte to become less spontaneous in his comments when he is the nation’s leader.

“I’m sure he will become more temperate as he sees the enormity of the task,” she said.

© 2016 The New York Times Company