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Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton retains a solid lead among Oahu voters as Republicans and Democrats prepare for their national conventions, with 49 percent of likely voters here saying they would vote for Clinton if the election for president were held today.
Presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump is the top choice of 25 percent of Oahu voters, while 6 percent of those surveyed said they do not plan to vote in the presidential race this year, according to a new Hawaii Poll.
Clinton is the favorite of 70 percent of the Democrats surveyed, while Trump is the top choice for 66 percent of the Republicans polled.
The Hawaii Poll, conducted by Ward Research Inc. June 30-July 9 on cellphones and landlines, included 401 registered voters on Oahu. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.9 points.
Clinton’s poll numbers show she is strongly supported by women voters on Oahu, and she is most popular in the East Honolulu, Pearl City and Central Oahu neighborhoods. Trump, meanwhile, is most popular in the Ewa and Leeward Coast areas.
Waianae resident Richard Medeiros said he supports Clinton, partly because of her record as a U.S. senator representing New York, and as secretary of state. Medeiros, 34, said he is afraid of what Donald Trump might do as president.
“The concern is that he is just a loose cannon. He kind of says whatever he wants at any given time,” said Medeiros, who works as an insurance claims adjuster. “I don’t want a president who’s just going to flip out on the news media or with another world leader.”
While the latest poll numbers show Clinton has solid support in the state’s most densely populated areas, thus far she does not appear to be an exceptionally popular Democrat by local standards.
President Barack Obama won more than 70 percent of the Hawaii vote in blowouts in both 2008 and 2012. Obama was born and raised in Hawaii and is extraordinarily popular here, but Democrat John Kerry won Hawaii with nearly 54 percent of the vote in the 2004 presidential contest. Al Gore won the state with 55.3 percent of the vote in 2000.
Republican candidates by contrast almost always face an uphill struggle here. Trump has his supporters, but Hawaii voters haven’t favored a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan ran for re-election in 1984.
Moanalua resident Micah Aiu, 27, recently graduated from the William S. Richardson School of Law and said he thinks the country needs a leader who offers a fresh start. Donald Trump “isn’t a politician, so he might be exactly something that we’re looking for,” Aiu said.
“I just think that he is a more honest candidate,” Aiu said of Trump. “He expresses what he’s thinking verbally, and will tend to run the country more businesslike, and that might be the change we need to see.”
The Republican National Convention begins in Cleveland on Monday, and is scheduled to run through Thursday. The Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia will be July 25-28.
20160717 Hawaii Poll Tables July 2016 – Presidential Race by Honolulu Star-Advertiser on Scribd
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