The latest Hawaii Poll shows former U.S. Rep. Charles Djou ahead in the race for Honolulu mayor, garnering more support among likely voters than incumbent Mayor Kirk Caldwell and former Mayor Peter Carlisle.

Djou was the choice for 39 percent of poll participants — ahead of Caldwell at 30 percent, and Carlisle at 15 percent.

The poll of 401 likely Oahu voters was conducted by Ward Research Inc. from June 30 to July 9, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 points.

The results are being closely watched because the top vote-getter in the Aug. 13 primary election needs to capture 50 percent of votes cast plus one in order to win the mayor’s seat. If Djou were to collect 39 percent of the votes cast, as the poll suggests, he would need to face off in the Nov. 8 general election against the second-place finisher.

In the 2012 primary election for mayor, former Gov. Ben Cayetano finished with 30,993 votes more than Caldwell. But in terms of percentages, Cayetano received 44.7 percent of the votes cast; Caldwell, 29.5 percent; and then-incumbent Carlisle, 25.1 percent. In the November runoff, Caldwell won by 22,974 votes, and 53.9 percent of votes cast.

The poll numbers suggest most voters have already decided for whom to cast their ballots in the primary, with only 9 percent indicating they didn’t know or refusing to answer the question.

Caldwell’s favorability and job performance ratings have dropped since the last Hawaii Poll taken in January, but not as badly as they fell from January 2015 to January 2016.

His 53 percent favorable rating in the current poll dropped from 54 percent in January 2016 and 64 percent in January 2015. The 41 percent unfavorable rating is higher than the 33 percent unfavorable rating of January 2016 and 22 percent of January 2015.

Similarly, 53 percent of those polled this month said they approved of Caldwell’s job performance, down from 59 percent in January 2016 and 70 percent in January 2015. His disapproval rating is now 44 percent, up from 32 percent in January 2016 and 20 percent in January 2015.

Caldwell’s 53 percent favorable rating is lower than the 62 percent rating for Djou and 56 percent for Carlisle. The Honolulu City Council, with whom Caldwell has often clashed in the past 3-1/2 years, scored a lower favorability than the mayor at 45 percent.

Jerry Burris, a freelance writer and former Honolulu Advertiser editorial page editor, said Caldwell clearly is losing support because of news of higher costs for the city’s rail transit project and his response to it.

The poll was conducted right after Caldwell announced that, due to lack of funding, he would recommend the rail line stop first at Middle Street rather than Ala Moana as originally planned until additional funding is available. The announcement drew a thumbs-down from people in both the pro- and anti-rail camps.

“People just kind of threw up their hands in disgust,” Burris said. “Whether rightfully or not, he took it on the chin with that announcement.”

Meanwhile, longtime rail opponent Djou’s lead in the poll and high favorability show he has reaped the benefits as the only one of the three major candidates who cannot be blamed for the headaches the project has brought to Honolulu, Burris said.

While he’s been on the local political scene for many years, Djou still “comes across as a fresh face” and “the reasonable voice of opposition,” Burris said. “So he’s in a nice political position, and Caldwell and Carlisle to a lesser extent are stuck with this tar baby,” he said. “And Caldwell, being mayor and unapologetically not moving away from it is going to take the greatest hit.”

Caldwell said he’s “not too surprised” with the poll results, noting it’s still early in the election cycle. “I think everyone on this island knows that I have huge, controversial issues surrounding me and there are issues I’ve not run from,” he said, citing the developments with the rail project as well as his handling of of the homeless.

The January 2016 Hawaii Poll showed then-potential candidate and former Lt. Gov. James “Duke” Aiona with 43 percent to Caldwell’s 38 percent, and Council Chairman Ernie Martin, also a potential candidate then, with 8 percent.

With the time left before the election, Caldwell said he wants to “get the story out” on how well he’s done in other areas that are important responsibilities for the mayor.

Kapolei resident Joseph Lewis, 32, who participated in the poll, said he’s not happy with all of Caldwell’s decisions and that the incumbent tries too hard to appease everyone. Nonetheless, the Office of Hawaiian Affairs worker said he will vote for Caldwell.

“I think he’s a likeable guy … overall I think he represents Honolulu well,” said Lewis, who wants the rail project to go to Ala Moana, even if it means extending the excise tax surcharge. He called Djou opportunistic and said he has moved through too many political seats, and as for Carlisle, “he’s had his time.”

Djou said the poll results are “a reflection not of me, but my campaign team’s hard work and, more importantly, about the community really showing that they want change, that we need new leadership at Honolulu Hale, that this mess and fiasco with the rail system has to be changed.”

Djou pointed out that he’s only been campaigning for about a month. “We didn’t spend any money on ads so far and the fact that we have such an exceptional campaign from the get-go having spent no money I think bodes very well for us but I’m not taking anything for granted,” he said.

Djou said he’s not bothered that the poll numbers suggest he would not be able to win outright in August. This year’s race is different than the one Cayetano lost four years ago because “four years ago, rail was on time and on budget.”

The desire for a change is what’s important to Kaimuki resident Karane Wright, a poll participant who said she will vote for Djou. The 61-year-old health care analyst said she largely favors Djou’s position on rail and wants no additional taxpayer money going toward it.

Wright said she also will vote for Djou because he’s been a card-carrying Republican, despite the city race being a nonpartisan one.

Wright said she doesn’t believe Caldwell’s done a good job improving the infrastructure because she still encounters both potholes and broken sewer and water pipes. “Things are falling apart and they keep raising our taxes,” she said. “I don’t see things improving.”

Carlisle said he’s not surprised by his third-place showing, noting that he started his campaign late. “I need to make people know that I’m in the race, and that I’m in it for serious,” he said.

Carlisle said he was buoyed by his favorability numbers. “That … gives me the opportunity to be able to argue my case better in terms of getting the message out (to voters) that yes, I’m in the race, and I’m the person who’s going to be doing the most for rail and the most for homelessness,” he said.

Enchanted Lake resident Shannon Kala-Wilsey, 46, participated in the poll and said she will vote for Carlisle, noting that she likes his law-and-order background as former city prosecutor. The entrepreneur said she’s fed up with the “whole rail bit.”

Kala-Wilsey said she’s not sure Caldwell is to blame for the problems he’s encountered while dealing with rail and homelessness.

“He has a tough job,” she said. “It just sucks to be him.”

But she said she won’t vote for him because “it’s time for a change.”

20160717 Hawaii Poll Tables July 2016 – Mayoral Race by Honolulu Star-Advertiser on Scribd