Rail board stakes out dual tracks

The new “Interim Plan” that Honolulu rail leaders delivered to their federal partners Monday actually offers two paths forward for the island’s beleaguered, cash-strapped transit project.

Under “plan A,” the city can find the money to close what’s now estimated to be at least a $1.8 billion gap and build rail to Ala Moana Center as planned.

Under “plan B,” it can drastically cut rail’s length and its stations to build to the existing $6.8 billion budget — but it has to do it in a way that’s still acceptable to the Federal Transit Administration.

The Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation is clear in its interim plan, an 88-page report that the FTA requested to help keep local officials on track as they assemble rail’s larger recovery plan. The local agency wants plan A.

“That’s our preference,” HART acting Executive Director Mike Formby said Monday. “We’re committed to plan A.”

Formby and his lieutenants at HART have already started to meet face to face with state and city elected leaders, discussing the massive financial challenges that the 20-mile, 21-station project now faces.

Project costs have skyrocketed by more than $3.3 billion since December 2014. Under a 2012 funding deal with the FTA, Honolulu’s rail project was supposed to cost $5.26 billion. Last week, HART revealed its latest cost estimate of $8.6 billion — and its board chairwoman has acknowledged costs could increase further.

The rail officials hope city and state leaders will authorize more funds to complete rail to Ala Moana — even though state lawmakers already authorized in 2015 a rail tax extension that HART leaders said would likely be enough to finish the project.

“They understand that we plan on coming back in 2017,” and legislators have told Formby, “If you come back, you better come back with all your I’s dotted and your T’s crossed,” Formby said Monday. State lawmakers he’s met with want a new rail financial plan, which hasn’t been updated since 2012. They also want cash-flow rates and other details, Formby said.

“We’re working on all of that,” he said.

In the interim plan, HART echoed an earlier request from Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell that the FTA extend its recovery plan deadline until June 30, giving Caldwell and rail officials enough time to at least try to get the dollars for their plan A. On Monday, Formby said the FTA hasn’t yet responded to that extension request. The federal agency’s leaders wanted to see an interim plan before then, Formby added.

For HART, the interim plan boils down to the local agency’s hoping for the best but preparing for the worst, Formby acknowledged.

As HART hopes for plan A, its officials this month will start to examine plan B in more detail, and the drastic ways it can scale down the project to fit rail’s existing $6.8 billion budget, according to the interim plan.

The FTA has already told the city that it would forfeit its $1.55 billion in federal funding if it stops rail about 5 miles short, at Middle Street. Nonetheless, under the interim plan HART officials will study other cost-cutting alternatives. They’ll examine how sharply ridership and fare revenues might drop if they ended the rail line at the downtown station near Aloha Tower and cut multiple stations.

Even if HART were to find other ways to build rail at $6.8 billion, it’s not clear whether the FTA would accept such an alternative. Whether the federal partners still deem the system to be functional, Formby said, depends on how the move would affect ridership.

HART expects to complete its plan B studies in April, according to the interim plan.

Meanwhile, Formby has said he intends to leave HART and the city before the Nov. 8 general election. His successor is “going to be entering the picture at a very important time,” Formby said Monday. The new executive director will have to become familiar with the rail project, as he or she also lobbies skeptical state leaders for massive amounts of additional funding.

HART Deputy Executive Director Brennon Morioka and Project Manager Sam Carnaggio, a former FTA official, would be key to help get the new HART leader up to speed during such a momentous time for rail, Formby said.

“It’s going to take a team approach to get this solved,” he added.

HART’s interim plan also says HART could use a combination of plans A and B, where the agency finds more funding but would still have to make cuts to the project.

HART Interim Plan.final.93016 by Honolulu Star-Advertiser on Scribd