Tourist activity continues to rise

Hawaii’s visitor industry is hurtling toward its fifth banner year of arrivals and spending gains, with the momentum expected to continue into 2017.

If that happens, it will mean that Hawaii will have achieved its longest period of sustained growth in arrivals and nominal spending since the mid-1980s, as far back as the Hawaii Tourism Authority’s statistics go, said Daniel Nahoopii, HTA director of tourism research.

Hawaii already is off to a good start.

Visitor arrivals set a new monthly record in October and visitor spending increased for the fifth consecutive month, according to HTA statistics released Wednesday.

In October, Hawaii welcomed 717,486 visitors, just over a 4 percent gain from October 2015. They spent $1.2 billion, a nearly 7 percent rise from October 2015. Visitor arrivals increased across all major islands and spending rose on every island, except Oahu.

“Hawaii’s tourism industry began the fourth quarter with the best October on record, both in visitor arrivals and spending. With the peak holiday travel season upon us, the State of Hawaii is in excellent position to set new yearly records in both categories, as well as generated state tax revenue,” HTA President and CEO George Szigeti said in a statement.

Through October, visitor arrivals grew nearly 3 percent to 7.4 million visitors and spending rose 4 percent to $12.8 billion.

“If we maintain the current pace this will be the fifth consecutive year of year-over-year growth for visitor arrivals and spending (not adjusted for inflation),” Nahoopii said.

As of October, tourism is ahead of forecasts for arrivals, spending and air seats, Nahoopii said. The most recent estimates anticipated a year-end finish of over 8.8 million visitors, $15.6 billion in spending and 11.9 million air seats, he said.

“If we maintain the current pace this will be the fifth consecutive year of year-over-year growth for visitor arrivals and (nominal) spending,” Nahoopii said.

Strong third and fourth quarters are contributing to the successes. Since summer, Szigeti said, Hawaii has achieved five straight months of year-over-year spending gains.

Keith Vieira, principal of KV &Associates Hospitality Consulting, said a strong fourth quarter bodes well for the future.

“There’s nothing better for a strong first quarter than a strong fourth quarter because momentum carries,” Vieira said. “It could be even stronger in 2017.”

Vieira said solid neighbor island performance, especially on Hawaii island, is another positive indicator.

“Kona is pacing well, and that’s a good indication for the rest of the state,” Vieira said. “The Big Island is the laggard they are more reliant on the group market and have a tougher time filling up than Maui, which has strong snow birds.”

Tony Bruno, general manager Westin Maui Resort &Spa, said the property had “a spectacular, record-setting year,” and the “first two quarters of 2017 already look strong.”

Westin Maui has exceeded its earlier 2007 peak and Bruno said it’s experiencing “real growth.” The merger of Marriott and Starwood and their loyalty programs as well as the one coming between Alaska Airlines and Virgin America should continue the pattern, he said.

Jack Richards, Pleasant Holidays president and CEO, said the company achieved single digit growth through 2016, which posted increases despite relatively flat air seat capacity. There were 10,024,301 air seats during the first 10 months of the year, which represented under 1 percent growth from the same period in 2015, HTA said.

“The airlines are running full and that’s a good thing,” said Richards, who heads Hawaii’s largest wholesale seller. “Our research suggests more airlines will be poised to serve Hawaii in 2017 and 2018.”

Fuel costs may rise from Wednesday’s OPEC deal to limit oil production in 2017, but Richards thinks greater competition between carriers may offset such headwinds.

Regardless, Richards said Pleasant Holidays’ packages to Hawaii already are up double digits through the first seven months of 2017. The company’s luxury brand Journese also is seeing strong growth, particularly with the addition of higher-end inventory like the Four Seasons Resort Oahu at Ko Olina and the Ritz-Carlton Residences Waikiki Beach, he said.

“2016 was a good year. I think 2017 will be even better. We haven’t been this enthusiastic about Hawaii for many years,” Richards said.