AUGUSTA, Ga. >> When you look at the field of 94 golfers in the 2017 version of the Masters, you can count the number of guys who can win it on one hand.
Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama and sentimental favorite Phil Mickelson are the obvious choices with everyone else on the outside of Magnolia Avenue looking in.
Yeah, I can hear the local fans yelling into their newspapers and computer screens, “What about Spain’s Jon Rahm, Australia’s Jason Day, Sweden’s Henrik Stenson and our own Rickie Fowler?” No, no, no and hell no. Rahm has a temper, Day has a bad back, Stenson comes and goes, and Fowler can’t get out of escrow when it comes to closing a major deal. They aren’t a bad foursome mind you, but none is among the top five favorites, according to the Las Vegas wise guys.
Two months ago, you could have had Spieth, who has never finished worse than second in three previous appearances, for a hefty 8-1 price. The Tuesday odds at Caesars Palace had him listed at 13-2 with Johnson the favorite at 5-1 and McIlroy third-best at 7-1.
You can understand why Johnson is the top choice given he’s the No. 1 player in the world, who has won his past three starts on the PGA Tour, including two World Golf Championships. This man can hit it high and far off the tee. He is deadly with a wedge in his hand and is the only man to card three eagles in a single round at Augusta National.
But before you cash that ticket on Sunday afternoon, take a look at his record here. It’s not that good. He tied for fourth last year and for sixth in 2015. Since 2009, those are his only top 10s. Not exactly a ringing endorsement for the best player on the planet.
Spieth, on the other hand, has a far better resume. He finished tied for second to Bubba Watson in his first tour of duty in 2014, equaled Tiger Woods’ Masters record of 18 under in his 2015 win and had it not been for a meltdown at Amen Corner last year would have won again.
He still finished tied for second to defending champion Danny Willett. He also claims a practice session last December where he hit an 8-iron 15 feet to the left of the pin at No. 12 was enough to exorcise his quadruple-bogey demons of a year ago. We’ll have to see about that, but there’s no reason to bet against the Dallas native no matter what Johnson has done of late.
Then you have McIlroy, who was on his way to winning the Masters in 2011 with a four-shot lead that disappeared at No. 10 when he went wide left off the tee that led to a final-round 80. He has three top 10s the past three years here and seems poised to have Willett put the famed green jacket on him come Sunday.
As for Matsuyama and Mickelson, they are less likely to hoist a trophy, but both are capable. Matsuyama has had as good a six months as anybody on tour. Unfortunately for the Japanese star, he’s a little out of sorts coming into this event. From October to January, he had two wins and two seconds in four consecutive appearances. He won again at Phoenix in February, but has cooled considerably in his past four starts on tour.
He has played Augusta National five times since 2011 with a tie for seventh last year and a fifth-place finish in 2015. If he can find his game starting today, he has as good a chance as anyone.
And then there’s Phil.
Mickelson last won here in 2010. Since his first appearance in 1991, the 46-year-old has 15 top 10s, including three victories. He tied for second the year Spieth won at 14 under, but had a T58 last year at plus 7. He is the same age that Jack Nicklaus was when he won his last major here in 1986 and would bring down the house that Bobby Jones built if he managed that feat on Sunday.
It would seem unlikely.
As for one long shot you might consider, how about Tournament of Champions and Sony Open winner Justin Thomas at 25-1? That’s a lot of folks’ dark horse in this field. But if you are a true betting man, McIlroy has the most value. That’s not to say you should bet the house on it. But a hundred bucks would produce a tidy little sum late Sunday evening for those willing to give it up.
