Let market drive use of electric cars

There are about 5,000 electric vehicles on Hawaii’s roadways. This number is one-half of 1 percent of the approximately 1 million light vehicle passenger cars and trucks operating in Hawaii in 2017.

The lofty goal of House Bill 1580 seeks ways to foster the future customer uptake of the remaining 99.5 percent of vehicles on the roadways to be electric vehicles by 2045.

International oil companies, as one might imagine, see things differently.

According to Green Car Reports, “Last year, OPEC predicted that just 6 percent of the cars on the world’s roads in 2040 would be powered by anything other than gasoline or diesel.” The March 24 posting, went on to add that “Exxon Mobil made a similar prediction, saying electric cars could account for less than 10 percent of global new-car sales in the same year.”

The proponents of HB 1580, it seems, see things unfolding quite differently.

Under the bill, there are independent estimates that roughly 25 percent of the new vehicles sold between now and 2025 (13,333 EVs per year 2017-2025), and half of the new vehicles sold 2026-2030 (25,000 EVs per year 2026-2030), and finally 100 percent of all new vehicles sold after 2030, through 2045 (50,000 EVs per year), would need to be electric vehicles, and Hawaii would thus meet the goal.

Bloomberg Reports has electric vehicle uptake somewhere in the middle of the aforementioned predictions, writing that 35 percent of all new car sales will be EVs by 2040. It should be noted, however, that figure is just for new car sales in that year, not for how many will be operating on the roadways.

The new car dealers of Hawaii testified on HB 1580, saying that setting so-called big hairy goals (a term used in business for the goal-setting done initially by companies like IBM and WalMart, for example) is not a bad idea, but that the state should always ensure that customer uptake of electric vehicles remains voluntary — driven by market-based forces.

For many new car customers, especially those customers with photovoltaic solar rooftop units, electric vehicles make economic sense.

For other customers, like those with large families to transport, or those needing vehicles with extra towing or hauling attributes, anticipating that gas prices will remain low — likely as “far as the eye can see,” according to AutoNation’s CEO Mike Jackson — a gasoline-powered vehicle remains the vehicle of choice.

New car dealers are carrying vehicles with a variety of powertrain options, including gasoline-powered, diesel-powered, biofuel (flex-fuel) powered, plug-in hybrid battery-electric powered, pure battery electric powered, and even hydrogen fuel cell electric powered vehicles.

Hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles, now currently being sold in Hawaii, will be officially categorized as electric vehicles if HB 1580 passes in its current form and is signed into law.

Hawaii’s population will increase through 2045, but the number of vehicles on the roadways will remain relatively constant at 1 million vehicles because alternative public transportation is being developed, along with ride-sharing, and people nowadays are doing more walking and biking. Another factor is that electronic commuters — those employees working at home via computer — are becoming more prevalent.

It should be noted that about 50,000 new vehicles have been sold each year — on average over the last 20 years — and about 50,000 old vehicles fall out of service each year, after 20 years or so, and are sent to the shredder for recycling.

New vehicles are much more fuel-efficient and are loaded with new features, including autonomous features.

Thus, transportation in the future is taking a new shape.

No matter what one’s view of the future, there will likely be a wide variety of transportation options available to fit one’s needs.

Hawaii’s new car dealers believe that as long as those transportation options remain market-driven, then customers will make the right choices.

David H. Rolf is executive director of the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association.