Analysis outlines benefit, possibility of maglev for Oahu rail

An analysis of costs considering conversion of Honolulu’s rail to a magnetically levitated (maglev) system reveals that an elevated project can be accomplished in under $6.8 billion. Hence, there should be no further extension of the general excise tax, requiring no further monies for construction.

In fact, our analysis shows that the project can be completed in just under $6 billion. In retrospect, it is unconscionable why the project could not be completed in under $5 billion if things had been done right. It is evident to many that contractors on this project have charged up to $2 for an item that should have cost $1. With foxes guarding the henhouse, it was easy to milk the cow.

It is likely that there were discouraging pressures to undertake fair cost estimates — or if undertaken — to have them undertaken fairly by impartial professional cost experts.

Maglev was invented in America and hence it is a pity that this powerful technology has been used in Japan, South Korea and China, but not in the land of its invention. Various lobby pressures and vested interests can be blamed squarely for this. They are starving progress.

The much-touted belief that maglev is “more expensive” or an “unknown technology” is spread by local consultants and contractors who wanted to grab the money the traditional way, but did not know how to grasp maglev. Hence, the political elite, which had few qualms, was allowed to be misled. It was also brought to light many years ago that rail contracts were given largely to those who had donated to the political establishment.

That there should be a separate investigation on how the contracts were awarded is a separate matter. Converting the first 10 miles from East Kapolei to Aloha Stadium to maglev, and then having maglev alone for the next 10 miles from Aloha Stadium to Ala Moana Center is a simple-to-implement technology.

Adopting this strategy, construction of the first 10 miles can cost $2.05 billion, and conversion to maglev would cost $329 million. A new maglev system for the next 10 miles would cost $1.55 billion, while general costs for the entire 20 miles would approximate $1.93 billion. The transition at Ala Moana from the former track to the new track can be seamless. In fact, a book has been written by the inventors that discusses urban maglev and its costs and benefits that all concerned should educate themselves on.

It is doing injustice to the profession, to the taxpayer, to the visitor industry, and to the beautiful state of Hawaii to ignore the elephant in the room. But, vested interests will tend to pooh-pooh maglev, even though the numbers belie them.

In the end, the proof is in the pudding. Speak to the inventors, if we must — but maglev in Honolulu is doable for under $6 billion by converting the existing system to the new technology. It’s easier than you think, and easier done than you imagine. The only thing needed is a reality check.

Maglev for Rail by Honolulu Star-Advertiser on Scribd

Amarjit Singh is a civil engineering professor at the University of Hawaii-Manoa; the views expressed here are his own.