The last of the super-sized king tides of the summer will hit Hawaii’s shores starting Friday — and they come as an east swell is building from distant Hurricane Fernanda.
“That could set up an interesting few days,” said Phil Thompson, associate director of the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center.
The combination of the summer’s highest tides with a sizable swell has the potential to generate substantial coastal erosion, wave overwash and temporary flooding along low-lying areas of east-facing shores, including the Windward Coast and the Ka Iwi Coast.
But how much flooding could depend on Fernanda’s track and where it aims its largest waves, officials said.
Elsewhere, wave run-up and nuisance coastal flooding are expected to look much like they did during the high tides of May and June, Thompson said.
Thompson said even though July’s tides are expected to be the highest of the summer, sea levels near Hawaii have diminished.
The unusual factors that made king tides in April and May exceptional, including bulging ocean eddies and a buildup of water from El Nino, will play less of a role this time, he said.
Nevertheless, beach flooding is expected at Waikiki for at least three days, according to the wave run-up forecast at the Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System. Friday’s king tide is expected to peak at 3:05 p.m., while Saturday’s crest is 3:50 p.m. and Sunday’s is at 4:32 p.m.
As for Hurricane Fernanda, the storm is expected to weaken steadily over the next few days as it passes through cooler waters and moves into a more stable air mass, forecasters said Tuesday.
But by the weekend the cyclone is expected to run into increasing shear associated with a developing region of low pressure north of Hawaii, a situation forecasters said will contribute to “a gradual spin-down” of Fernanda.
The National Hurricane Center intensity forecast suggests that Fernanda will weaken to a post-tropical cyclone by Saturday and degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday — well before the system reaches Hawaii, perhaps by Tuesday.
Meanwhile, an east swell generated by Fernanda, which maintained a Category 2 intensity Tuesday, is expected to build throughout the week.
The latest forecast indicates that surf along east-facing shores will be 2 to 5 feet through Wednesday and will build depending on Fernanda’s track.
State officials are recommending that landowners and residents in low-lying shoreline areas or near waterways, especially on the east-facing shores, consider moving to higher ground any electronics, vehicles or other valuables from basements or yards.
Honolulu city spokesman Andrew Pereira said sandbags are ready to be placed at the Waikiki Natatorium and Kuhio Beach Park. It’s also likely that the Department of Parks and Recreation will have the same sandbag and wood board setup at Ala Moana Regional Park that was put in place during the last bout of king tides, he said.
Maintenance crews, Pereira said, are checking streams and ditches and other areas prone to flooding across Oahu. This work began with storm prep for the remnants of Hurricane Fernanda, he said, but the department is also maintaining awareness of possible hazards from king tides.
“All of these efforts are being coordinated through the Department of Emergency Management, which will track and monitor any issues that may arise,” he said in an email.
In addition, lifeguards will monitor the currents at Hanauma Bay and the rest of Oahu’s coastlines, Pereira said.
University of Hawaii researchers said this summer’s high tides are offering a sneak preview of what will eventually become routine with global warming and sea-level rise.
There will be an increasing number of instances when not just king tides, but ordinary high tides combine with high water levels to reach flood stage, said Mark Merrifield, a UH-Manoa oceanography professor and director of the UH Sea Grant Center for Coastal and Climate Science.
Sea-level records have been broken in recent months. In late April, water levels peaked at more than
9 inches above predicted tides at the Honolulu Harbor tide gauge, resulting in the highest daily mean water level ever observed over the 112-year record.
And water levels in Honolulu Harbor exceeded 3 feet above mean low water levels three months in a row for the first time in recorded history, Thompson said.
Volunteers with UH Sea Grant’s Hawai‘i and Pacific Islands King Tides Project will be on the prowl this weekend documenting the flooding and high-water levels with photographs taken from across the state and around the Pacific.
Some 170 “citizen scientists” have submitted more than 1,700 photo records during the current king tides season, officials said.
In related news, the Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System has received a $500,000 grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to develop a wave run-up forecast and notification system for West Maui’s coastline, an area with a growing vulnerability to tide-driven flooding.