Who will challenge Ige next election? All eyes on Hanabusa

The biggest political race in Hawaii is the one implied, but not yet happening.

It is a political paradox that the state’s most important 2018 election, the gubernatorial contest, has just one major candidate, incumbent Gov. David Ige.

The question is, how much longer will it remain a one-person race?

The one observers across the field are waiting for is U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa.

So far she has not been coy, encouraging or anything more than flatly noncommittal.

When asked last week if she would comment on the race for governor, her one-word response was, “No.”

That response, of course, just opens itself up to more questions and scads of speculation.

A blog posted last week on Huffington Post discussed the lobbying around a recent bill to eventually ban collecting Hawaii fish for aquariums. It claimed that Hanabusa had called Ige to say he should act on the fish bill because she was going to run for governor.

“Colleen Hanabusa did not call Ige to announce her candidacy; she called to threaten it,” the post read.

This launched a series of denials remarkable for both their rapidity and harshness.

“Congresswoman Hanabusa … denies that she, or agents on her behalf, contacted or were contacted by Governor Ige or Governor Ige’s office with matters relating to SB 1240 and/or her potential to challenge Governor Ige,” said Hanabusa’s office.

Ige, in an interview last week, also said, “There was no contact at all between Congresswoman Hanabusa or her staff or any of my staff — none at all regarding SB 1240.”

“I did read the post,” Ige said. “It grossly misrepresented the issue. Lots of it was fabricated. I don’t know where it came from — absolutely fabricated.”

Enough about the fish. What about the race?

Another blog, the Daily Kos, last month was filled with speculation about Ige’s political future. Pointing to a June Merriman River Group survey showing Ige with 38 percent unfavorable to 35 percent favorable view, the blog suggested Ige could face primary trouble.

Another poll taken recently by Morning Consult, a nonpartisan digital media and survey research company, showed Ige with a 47 percent favorable to 40 unfavorable rating.

Ige says he expects some Democrat to challenge him.

“I look forward to the campaign. I know someone will challenge me. I look forward to being able to tell our story,” Ige said last week.

If Ige anticipates a race, he has yet to show he expects to spend much money on it. Three years into his gubernatorial term, Neil Abercrombie already had held 17 fundraisers as compared to Ige’s three. Abercrombie raised more than $5 million in his loss to Ige. So far in this election cycle, Ige has $238,387.24 for his reelection campaign.

One former Democratic political leader who asked for anonymity said Hanabusa would make a strong candidate.

“I think the smart move emotionally, psychologically and politically for Colleen is to come back and run for governor,” he said. “She is tough and smart and the pressure has really come up in the last month for Colleen to make a decision.”

If Hanabusa leaves Washington to come home and run, it will set off an avalanche of political changes as others try to move up. But without a decision, it is all just implication.

Richard Borreca writes on politics on Sundays. Reach him at 808onpolitics@gmail.com.